IPOH – At least two coalitions will enter an agreement to form the Perak government after polling tomorrow, as reports on the ground by political insiders indicate that no major coalition will be able to secure a simple majority on their own.
A similar scenario is playing out at the federal level, where none of the three main coalitions are expected to win enough seats to form the next government.
In Perak, the situation is due in part to the Malay vote, which is 51% out of 2.04 million voters in the state, split between Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN), and Perikatan Nasional (PN).
The new coalition Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) is also making its debut in the 15th general election (GE15) with all its candidates contesting under the Pejuang logo, but they are not expected to make much of a dent.
State seats such as Batu Kurau, Selama, Changkat Jong, Alor Pongsu, Hutan Melintang, Changkat Jering, Kubu Gajah, Bukit Chandan, and Manong, to name a few, will see the three main coalitions cannibalising each other’s Malay vote banks.
With the exception of Batu Kurau, all the seats mentioned saw slim-majority wins for the incumbents in the 2018 election, with some margins as narrow as less than a hundred votes.
Aware of the situation, both PN and BN are intensely campaigning in these areas, with both coalition insiders expecting a slim-majority win on either side.
Adding to this is the unpredictability of new young and first-time voters, thanks to laws lowering the voting age from 21 to 18.
While PH has been making inroads in slim-majority areas, their campaigning has been largely subdued or dependent on coalition heavyweights to make headway.
In recent days, Perak BN chairman Datuk Seri Saarani Mohamad has expressed his confidence that BN would be able to secure at least 40 seats out of the state’s total 59.
Privately, however, BN insiders say 25 to 28 seats is more realistic. A simple majority in the legislative assembly requires 30 seats.
The sombre numbers are based on informal findings by BN election volunteers on the ground that shows PN has secure footholds in these areas, thanks to the well-oiled machinery of the Islamist party PAS.
Despite these inroads for PN, its overall numbers look slightly bleak, with local observers predicting 20 to 23 state seats at best. This will also depend on how the young and first-timers vote, an unknown for all political parties.
Similarly, PH may not fare better, with DAP looking to secure at least 18 out of the 19 seats it is contesting. Its allies Amanah and PKR are predicted to muster between three to five seats each, still shy of a simple majority.
PKR and Amanah are contesting 21 and 19 state seats respectively.
Even before polling day arrives, insiders say there has already been talk, at least within each respective coalition, on how they can make a coalition government work.
PN and BN?
Before GE15, Bersatu and Umno made it clear that both parties and the respective coalition each leads will not combine forces. That rhetoric has been changing subtly over recent days, especially from the Bersatu-PN side, to allow the possibility of a post-election pact.
However, a senior Bersatu leader told The Vibes that if both coalitions were to work together at the state level, the requirements that PN will set will be strict.
Among them is that BN’s Saraani, who is contesting the Kota Tampan state seat, will not be the head of the state government.
Despite his political manoeuvring, we had honestly hoped he would have performed better as menteri besar, but that was not the case at all.
“So no, we do not want him leading the state,’’ said the Bersatu leader.
The party senior also said regardless of the outcome of the Tambun parliamentary seat, all respective coalitions will still need to deal with PN state chief Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu, possibly joining forces at the state level.
In Tambun, Faizal is contesting against PH chairman and prime minister hopeful Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, BN’s Datuk Aminuddin Md Hanafiah, and Pejuang’s Abdul Rahim Tahir.
In 2020, Faizal, fondly known as Peja, was booted out of the menteri besar’s office due to alleged political manoeuvring by Umno and strange bedfellows DAP.
Saarani became Perak menteri besar following this episode.
Umno and DAP?
Despite both parties’ long and hostile clash over ideologies and values, there has been talk even before GE15 of possible cooperation between the two.
Perak saw a glimpse of this cooperation that led to Faizal being booted out of office in 2020.
According to a PH insider, Perak at the time of Faizal’s ousting was supposed to be a “pilot project” on how Umno and DAP could work with each other under a confidence-and-supply model, and if successful, this could be replicated at the federal level.
“The idea is that PH can shore up the support for BN via a confidence-and-supply agreement or a similar political agreement.
“We could support the government without being in government, while ensuring that each of the state constituencies will receive the appropriate funding or similar funding across the board.”
The PH source said all parties would be content as they are effectively able to service their respective areas while cooperating on passing legislation.
A BN insider also acknowledged the efficacy of the CSA formula, but added that there would be an obvious downside to forming a state government in this manner with DAP.
“It will be a stable government, no doubt, but the advantage of PH not directly being in the state government is that they are able to place any blame or blowback on policies or initiatives solely on the BN government and absolve themselves of any responsibility.
“Purely in terms of optics, it is quite a good deal, because if it is reversed, then BN will also benefit by doing the same thing.
“But at this moment, it’s best we all just focus on winning,’’ said the BN source.
Party-hopping not yet outlawed
However, all coalition insiders admitted to the possible danger of party-hopping to form a new state government, as Perak has yet to pass state laws preventing elected representatives from switching parties.
Prior to GE15, PH state lawmakers had raised the alarm on this.
Perak is no stranger to turbulence as a result of party-hopping, as far back as 2009 when the Pakatan Rakyat state administration collapsed after three assemblymen became BN-friendly independents.
In 2020 again, in the wake of the Sheraton Move, Perak’s PH government became a PN one when three PH lawmakers left the coalition to support Faizal as menteri besar, until he was removed and Saraani took over later that year.
The three PH lawmakers who quit the coalition in 2020 were Titi Serong assemblyman Hasnul Zulkarnain Abd Munaim from Amanah, and Tronoh assemblyman Paul Yong and Buntong assemblyman A Sivasubramaniam, both from DAP.
Learning from these mistakes, PKR, DAP, and Amanah have all enacted strict vetting measures on their respective state candidates, including delving into their personal history and past political leanings.
“For DAP, party leaders want to make sure that each candidate is committed to the party even when times are tough.
“But, while not casting doubt on my peers, there are still lingering concerns because of this gap in the state law. There has been extensive discussion about this issue internally, but everyone agrees that the focus now is on winning in GE15,” said a DAP party insider.
An Amanah source familiar with the campaign in Perak however assured that the party had done its due diligence after what had happened with Hasnul.
“No one else from Amanah followed in his footsteps and we have also done our part to ensure it will not repeat,” said the source. – The Vibes, November 18, 2022
