KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysians will be casting their ballots tomorrow for the country’s 15th general election, in the hopes of forming a federal government of their choice.
However, given the strong possibility of a deadlock in the Dewan Rakyat – with no single coalition able to obtain the 112-seat simple majority – political analysts believe that the fate of the nation will ultimately be decided by the few political elites.
Will no clear majority lead to a hung Parliament?
BowerGroupAsia deputy managing director Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani told The Vibes and Getaran that the race between the three major coalitions – Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN), and Perikatan Nasional (PN) is neck and neck.
“The election outcome looks to be close, with no clear winners. We can expect to see extensive horse-trading between the political parties. Depending on the negotiations, there is a strong possibility of (PH chairman Datuk Seri) Anwar (Ibrahim) becoming prime minister.
“However, the discussions will depend on what concessions PKR and DAP are willing to make to either Umno or Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS). (Datuk Seri Ahmad) Zahid Hamidi’s ability to defend his seat will also be a factor in the negotiations.
“Prior to the 2018 election, nobody expected (Tun Dr) Mahathir (Mohamad) and DAP could form a federal government together. This election should not be any different in terms of forming new coalitions,” observed the analyst.
Similarly, Universiti Utara Malaysia lecturer Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani said he believes the result of tomorrow’s polling will lead to a hung Parliament – something Malaysia has never experienced in its electoral history before.
The academic said such a situation could see a few outcomes based on state-level precedents in Perak and Kedah.
“In those cases, the sultan asked the party with the largest number of seats to form a government. For example, if PH wins the biggest number, then the Yang di-Pertuan Agong may ask (Datuk Seri) Anwar Ibrahim to form a government.
“During this period, Anwar needs to negotiate with other parties willing to join him as part of his coalition. That’s probably the situation if PH gets the biggest number. If it’s other parties, they will then be given the chance to form a government,” said Azizuddin.
No indication of hung Parliament
On the other hand, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Kartini Aboo Talib said that there is no clear evidence of a possibility of a hung Parliament at the moment.
At the same time, she predicted that it will be a mixed-coalition government as there are no clear leaders in the 15th race for Putrajaya.
“Many analysts predict it will be a mixed government. No one claims the majority, and no more ‘frogs’ are leaping thanks to the party-hopping law, effective October 5, 2022.
“Other than that, we do not see a political gridlock everyday – it is case by case.”
Her sentiments are shared by University of Tasmania’s James Chin who dismissed talk of a hung Parliament, going so far as saying that a new prime minister will be sworn in on Sunday.
Just to be clear; some analysts say hung parliament on Saturday. No such thing. A Govt will be put together on Saturday night and a PM appointed latest on Sunday. There will be NO political instability. Please do not scare ppl to vote. Respect the voter.#GE15 pls viral.
— James Chin (@jameschin110) November 17, 2022
“Just to be clear; some analysts say hung Parliament on Saturday. No such thing. A government will be put together on Saturday night and a PM appointed latest on Sunday. There will be NO political instability. Please do not scare people from voting. Respect the voter.
“#GE15 pls viral,” Chin tweeted.
Azizuddin, on the other hand, believes the three major coalitions will make a series of negotiations that will last up to a week before any concessions can be made.
Who will form the new govt coalition?
Touching on the make-up of any possible alliances and whether or not PH is in the lead, Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun said the coalition has no other choice to win.
Failure to do so will most likely see it on the opposition aisle as it is more likely for the Malay-centric coalitions of BN and PN join forces once again.
“I think if PH cannot win an outright parliamentary majority, the chances of them forming any coalition is very difficult because the deep state, or to put it more bluntly, the Malay-Muslim deep state would insinuate their way into preventing PH from forming any sort of coalition.
“If they win an outright majority, then nothing can be said, right? But if they don’t, even if PN and BN win fewer seats than them, PN and BN will come back together, with the support of GPS, GRS, and maybe even Warisan – who knows – and thereby revert to what has been happening over the last two years.”
Following their cooperation, the pundit predicted, a series of tussles between Umno and PAS will ensue over the prime minister’s office.
Oh left out Bersatu as he foresees that the party led by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin will not have as many seats as the Islamist party led by Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang – leaving the lion’s share of the BN-PN seats between Umno and PAS.
“If PAS and Umno are close in the number of seats, then they will tussle for the prime ministership. The other thing is the continuing power struggle within Umno itself.
“So there could be several power struggles within the coalition government in Umno and so on,” said Oh, referring to the civil war right now triggered by Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who forced this election while replacing some of the party’s warlords during nomination day.
However, Azizuddin did not agree with Oh’s perspective that BN and PN will come together once more to rule the country as they did after the Sheraton Move in February 2020, when party-hopping brought down the PH federal administration.
This is because the two coalitions could not decide who should be prime minister. – The Vibes, November 18, 2022
