RECENT analyses of Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional’s (BN) difficulty in forming a multi-racial government in Penang with coming state elections are flawed on a number of grounds.
It was argued that there were chances that all Malay majority seats might fall into the hands of Perikatan Nasional (PN). It was even argued that PH and BN might not be able to hold onto power in Penang, supposedly PH’s political fortress.
It has to be pointed out that the chances of PN winning hold good in only seats that have a clear Malay majority. In this respect, in racially mixed constituencies, chances of PN winning are slim even if Malays make a simple majority.
If Malays make up more than 70%, chances of PN winning are high. Therefore, the higher the number of Malay voters, the higher the chances for PN’s victory. However, in state constituencies with mixed races, PN might not win given the voting preferences of non-Malay voters.
Although PN victory in Malay majority constituencies is predicated on the notion that Malay support is overwhelmingly pro-PN, this might not be the case right now as PN’s sweeping of more than 50% of Malay votes might not be repeated in the coming state elections, particularly in Penang.
Even if PH-BN combine is weak in garnering Malay support, it is estimated that good governance in Penang might entice more Malay support for Malay-based parties such as PKR, Amanah and Umno.
Predictions that PN might simply walk over in Malay majority areas might not be true, especially under the changed political, social and psychological circumstances. Earlier political scenes that prevailed just before parliamentary elections last year might not be the same.
It is not that PN had lost Malay support, but its image of being a clean and holier-than-thou coalition has diminished as a result of corruption charges levelled at some Bersatu leaders. As timing is of essence in elections, what happened during parliamentary elections might be repeated in the coming state elections.
Analysts who predicted that PN will carry all Malay majority seats forget the power of incumbency at both national and state levels. In the last general elections, incumbency might have assisted PH or PN parties at state level. But this time around, there might be a double whammy for PN at both federal and state levels, especially states under PH.
Given this, it might not be easy for PN to pull Malay support in states like Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan. The same thing could be said for its ascendancy in Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan.
The bandwagon effect might have influenced political analysts as to their bias towards PN and why they expect this coalition to do well in Penang. However, in their zeal to predict a positive outcome for PN, they fail to take into account the effect of good governance on the Malay electorate.
A recent study of Malay voters in Penang indicates that while they might have difficulty with DAP, they have no problem with the Penang state government headed by DAP. Slightly more than 50% of Malay voters have no difficulty with the DAP-led Penang state government.
However, for Malays, race and religion narratives are important. Such narratives might be the tipping point of their ultimate preferences when it comes to voting. But at the same time, Malay voters are very rational. They are in a position to separate fact from fiction.
For the B40 group, bread-and-butter issues are equally salient in political and social contexts where they face no imagined threats.
This illustrates that Malay voters might have an inherent dislike for DAP but might not be prejudiced against the Penang government in terms of the delivery of services.
Undifferentiated perspectives on Malay voters in Penang might be the reason why political analysts are continuing to regurgitate the old narrative that they might blindly cast their vote in favour of PN, to the extent that the incumbent government might be toppled.
As I have argued, examining political circumstances of the last elections, the changed scenario that might operate before the coming state elections, corruption charges against certain PN leaders, power of incumbency, and last but not least rationality of Malay voters might ultimately be conducive to a PH-BN victory in Penang. – The Vibes, April 27, 2023
P. Ramasamy is Penang deputy chief minister (II)
