Japanese winter election sees Takaichi’s LDP-Ishin coalition poised for major victory

JAPANESE voters went to the polls on Sunday in an election widely expected to strengthen Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s position, even as severe snowstorms in northern and eastern prefectures threaten to keep many citizens away from polling stations.

Multiple opinion polls indicate that the conservative coalition of Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, known collectively as Ishin, could secure more than 300 of the 465 seats in the lower house of parliament.

The coalition currently holds 233 seats.

Reuter cited today that analysts suggest that if the bloc wins 310 seats, it would gain the capacity to override the opposition-controlled upper chamber, consolidating Takaichi’s authority. She has pledged to resign should the coalition fail to retain a majority.

Takaichi, 64, who became Japan’s first female prime minister in October upon being elected LDP leader, is seeking a popular mandate in an unusual winter election.

She enjoys strong appeal among younger voters, who have created a social media-driven wave known as “sanakatsu” celebrating products she uses, from handbags to her pink parliamentary pen.

A recent poll found that more than 90 per cent of voters under 30 express support for her, although that age group is historically less likely to vote than older, more reliably conservative constituents.

“With a big win, Takaichi will have more political room to follow through on key commitments, including cuts to the consumption tax,” said Seiji Inada, managing director at FGS Global.

“Markets could react in the following days, and the yen could come under renewed pressure.” The prime minister has promised to suspend the 8 per cent sales tax on food for two years to help households manage rising prices, partly driven by the yen’s recent decline.

Takaichi has also stirred international attention, receiving an endorsement from former U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday, a gesture likely to mobilise right-leaning voters while potentially alienating some moderates.

Severe weather poses a significant challenge to the election. Snowfall of up to 70 cm (28 inches) is forecast in northern and eastern regions, making it difficult for some voters to reach polling stations.

In rural Niigata prefecture, campaigners urged citizens to vote early to avoid blizzard conditions. “It’s bad enough here in the towns, but in the mountains there’s twice as much snow.

“It’s hard just to leave the house,” said Takehiko Igarashi, a volunteer for the Japanese Communist Party, which is calling on supporters and offering transport to polling stations.

Low turnout could magnify the influence of organised voting blocs, including Komeito, which merged last year with the centrist opposition Constitutional Democratic Party and maintains close ties to the lay-Buddhist Soka Gakkai group, claiming around 8 million members nationwide.

Voters are choosing representatives in 289 single-seat constituencies, with the remainder of the 465 lower house seats determined by proportional representation. Polling stations close at 20:00 local time (11:00 GMT), after which broadcasters are expected to issue projections based on exit polls.

The outcome of today’s vote will not only determine Takaichi’s political mandate but could also shape Japan’s domestic policy on tax, defence spending, and economic stimulus, while testing voter mobilisation under extreme winter conditions. - February 8, 2026