IRAN is considering whether to attend peace talks with the United States in Pakistan, a senior Iranian official told Reuters, though no final decision has been taken as the ceasefire deadline approaches.
Washington had been aiming to launch negotiations in Pakistan before the truce expires later this week, with U.S. President Donald Trump keen to secure an agreement that could stabilise oil prices and prevent further market volatility.
However, it remains unclear what kind of deal could be reached within a matter of days.
Tehran has struck a defiant tone. Iran’s top negotiator and parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, accused Trump of escalating pressure through what he described as a blockade and ceasefire violations, insisting that Iran would not engage under duress.
In a post on X, he said Trump was seeking to turn negotiations into a "table of surrender."
Uncertainty has been compounded by conflicting signals from Washington. A separate source told Reuters that U.S. Vice President JD Vance remained in the United States, dismissing reports that he was en route to Pakistan for talks.
Markets have reacted nervously.
Oil prices rose by around 5 per cent amid fears the ceasefire could collapse, while shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stalled, according to maritime data.
The disruption follows a U.S. announcement that it had seized an Iranian cargo vessel over the weekend, prompting Tehran to vow retaliation.
The precise timing of the ceasefire’s expiry has not been publicly confirmed by Trump. However, a Pakistani source involved in the discussions said it would lapse at 8pm Eastern Time on Wednesday, corresponding to midnight GMT and 3:30 a.m. Thursday in Iran.
Tensions persist elsewhere in the region. In Lebanon, Israel has instructed residents in the south to avoid a zone along the border, including the area near the Litani River, consolidating its presence despite an existing ceasefire with Hezbollah.
The United States is expected to host a second round of ambassador-level talks between Lebanon and Israel on Thursday in an effort to shore up the fragile truce.
The broader conflict has already had a profound impact on global energy markets. Since hostilities began nearly 50 days ago, more than 500 million barrels of crude oil and condensate have been removed from global supply, according to Kpler data, marking the largest disruption to energy markets in modern history.
At current prices of around $100 per barrel, analysts estimate the loss at roughly $50 billion in foregone revenue.
The scale of disruption is equivalent to halting global aviation demand for 10 weeks, eliminating all road travel worldwide for 11 days, or depriving the global economy of oil for five days.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz remained open following a ceasefire accord linked to Lebanon, while Trump expressed confidence that a deal to end the Iran conflict could come “soon”, though no timeline has been set.
Despite that, recovery is expected to be slow.
Global onshore crude inventories have fallen sharply, and production outages have reached around 12 million barrels per day since late March.
Analysts warn that restoring output in key producing countries such as Kuwait and Iraq could take several months, while damage to refining capacity and regional gas infrastructure may take years to fully repair.
The US and Iran appear poised to hold a second round of talks in Pakistan this week, following several days of confusion that suggested diplomacy had stalled.
In a new development, Vance, who led the Washington delegation in earlier failed discussions, is expected to leave for Pakistan on Tuesday.
Both sides have dug in on their hardened stances in the conflict; with the US President saying he is unlikely to extend Washington’s truce with Tehran, due to end Wednesday, putting pressure on negotiators to strike a deal to end hostilities.
Trump said he “wants the war to end, now, on his terms,” Axios wrote, but with deep disagreements lingering, “the war may… be on the precipice of a massive expansion.” - April 21, 2026
