GLOBAL fuel supplies could face heightened risks in the coming months unless shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal, according to a joint warning issued by the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the International Energy Agency.
The three institutions said rapidly declining global oil inventories, driven by severe supply disruptions linked to the conflict in the Gulf region, were creating growing concerns over energy security at a time when demand is expected to reach its annual peak during the Northern Hemisphere summer.
"Global oil stocks are declining at the fastest rate in history following major supply losses caused by disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
"The continued depletion of global oil inventories ahead of peak summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere will increase risks to fuel supply security, market stability and global economic resilience if shipping flows do not return to normal.
"Rising fertiliser prices are also a major concern as many countries enter their planting season," Reuters reported the agencies saying.
The warning reflects escalating concerns over the wider economic consequences of the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, which has expanded tensions across the Middle East and severely disrupted activity along one of the world's most strategically important maritime corridors.
The Strait of Hormuz normally handles around one-fifth of global energy supplies, making any interruption to shipping a significant threat to international markets.
The IMF, World Bank and IEA announced in April the formation of a special coordination group aimed at aligning their response to the crisis and supporting economies considered most vulnerable to the fallout.
At the IMF Spring Meetings earlier this year, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the organisation had been forced to revise down its global growth forecasts as a result of the conflict and its impact on energy markets.
She estimated that the most exposed economies could require between US$20 billion and US$50 billion in financial assistance to mitigate the economic consequences of the war.
The IMF this week disclosed that Bangladesh had already requested a financial assistance package, with discussions under way to develop a support programme.
The repercussions of the crisis are being felt far beyond the Middle East, particularly among countries heavily dependent on oil and gas imports from the Gulf region. Many economies across South Asia and South-East Asia are especially vulnerable to prolonged disruptions in energy supplies and rising import costs.
Fertiliser markets have also been affected by the conflict, raising concerns over agricultural production and food security.
Countries reliant on imported fertilisers are facing increased costs, prompting fears that higher input prices could ultimately translate into rising food prices and greater pressure on lower-income populations.
The joint warning underscores growing international concern that prolonged instability in the Gulf could evolve from an energy crisis into a broader economic and food security challenge, particularly for developing nations already grappling with fragile growth and rising fiscal pressures. - May 30, 2026
