SIX months into the Iran war, Republican strategists are increasingly worried that the conflict could cost the party control of Congress in November's midterm elections, as frustrated voters turn against a war that President Donald Trump had promised would be short-lived.
The continuing hostilities have unsettled Republican voters who backed Trump on promises to bring down prices and keep the United States out of overseas conflicts.
The political damage is being compounded by rising gas prices, persistent inflation and declining public support for Trump's handling of the war.
Bloomberg, on Sunday, cited some forecasters now say Republicans risk losing control of both chambers of Congress if the president fails to reverse public sentiment before election day.
Such a result would threaten Trump's legislative agenda for the remainder of his term and open the door to a wave of investigations by Democratic lawmakers.
Americans were sceptical of the war from the outset, although opinion initially divided sharply along party lines.
But after a massive US bombing campaign failed to force Iran's surrender, while disruptions to energy markets pushed up petrol prices and fuelled inflation, public sentiment began to turn against the conflict.
Recent surveys show voters increasingly unhappy with Trump, the war and Republican candidates.
Several Republican strategists and outside White House advisers, speaking anonymously, said they did not expect the war to be resolved or gas prices to fall before November.
They also expressed concern that the White House had damaged its credibility over Iran following Trump's repeated claims that the Strait of Hormuz remained open to shipping and that fuel prices were falling.
Trump has shown little inclination to change course.
On Aug 24, he dismissed his declining poll numbers as "fake" and said the United States was "winning" the war with Iran.
A White House adviser who recently met Trump said the president remained committed to his long-held belief that strength prevails over weakness, suggesting a major shift in Middle East policy was unlikely.
Political analysts said Trump's stance had become a significant obstacle to Republican efforts to retain control of Congress.
"It's a pernicious issue for Republicans because it cuts directly against Trump's strengths – he was the guy that was going to bring down prices and keep us out of endless wars in the Middle East," said Amy Walter, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
"For many people who voted for him, there's a sense of bewilderment and disappointment."
The Cook Political Report on Aug 20 shifted its ratings of the Texas and Iowa Senate races — both traditionally Republican states — to "Toss Up", potentially complicating the battle for control of the chamber.
Walter compared the political climate with 2006, when Republican losses in the midterms were driven in part by growing opposition to the Iraq war.
"No two elections are exactly alike," she said, "but this year feels similar to 2006, when headwinds Republicans faced over the increasingly unpopular war in Iraq led to significant midterm losses."
The White House, however, maintains that its pressure campaign against Iran is working and that voters will ultimately regard the conflict as a foreign policy success.
On Aug 27, Trump posted "Mission Accomplished 2026" alongside an image of the war.
"What matters most to the American people is having a Commander-in-Chief who takes decisive action to eliminate threats and keep them safe, which is exactly what President Trump is doing," White House spokesman Davis Ingle said.
"The President does not make these incredibly important national security decisions based on fluid opinion polls or political pundits, but on the best interests of the American people."
But polling suggests public frustration is deepening.
A recent Ipsos-Reuters survey found that 63 per cent of Americans disapproved of Trump's handling of the Iran war, compared with 25 per cent who approved.
Four in five respondents said they expected US military involvement to continue for an extended period.
Trump's overall approval rating stood at 33 per cent, the lowest of his second term.
Republican support for the war has also weakened, falling to 69 per cent from 77 per cent in March.
"Americans have never supported this war, and there's no reason to think public opinion is going to change," said longtime Republican pollster Whit Ayres.
Republican strategists are increasingly concerned that dissatisfaction could discourage their supporters from voting in November.
"The GOP base has not yet shown up for the midterm," said Alex Conant, a veteran Republican strategist. "Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof, but Republicans haven't come home yet."
Conant said the party still had time to turn the situation around, particularly if Trump used the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Sept 9 to refocus the campaign on affordability.
Democrats, meanwhile, are making the war a central line of attack in television advertisements and fundraising appeals.
The conflict and its impact on fuel prices could be particularly damaging for Republicans in the Midwest.
"The war in Iran has made Ohio's gas prices some of the highest in the nation and farmers are being crushed by the cost of diesel and fertiliser," Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown said in a new television advertisement targeting Republican incumbent Jon Husted.
"So why has Jon Husted voted 13 times for the war?"
A recent survey by Democratic political firm Tavern Research found that 71 per cent of voters believed the war had negatively affected the US domestic situation, including 48 per cent of Republicans.
The Aug 25 survey of 834 likely voters found that 96 per cent of Democratic voters disapproved of Trump's handling of the conflict, while 65 per cent said the war was "very important" to their voting decision.
Tavern's head of research and strategy, Jessica Reis, said the war's economic consequences among independent and Republican voters made it particularly potent for Democratic candidates.
"To voters, the war showcases Trump's misplaced priorities," Reis said. "It's become a magnifying glass amplifying the issues people are most concerned about: rising prices and the cost of health care and housing."
The survey also found that many undecided voters or those uncertain about voting leaned Republican.
Among undecided voters, 69 per cent said they preferred a candidate who would end US involvement in Iran, compared with 31 per cent who supported continued involvement.
A recent CNN/SSRS poll similarly found that nearly three in four Americans believed the war was not worth the financial burden and US casualties it had caused.
Although most Republicans continued to say the war was worth it, 43 per cent said it was not.
For Republican strategists, the concern is that many of the dissatisfied voters backed Trump in 2024.
"For Trump, the war has challenged two of the main things he said he would accomplish: keeping the US out of new wars and lowering prices," Ayres said.
Whether Trump can change that perception before election day — and whether he is willing to do so — could determine which party controls Congress in 2027 and shape the remainder of his presidency.
But few Republicans are publicly challenging his strategy on Iran.
Much of the visible Republican opposition has instead come from media figures such as Tucker Carlson and a small group of politicians who have fallen out of Trump's political orbit, including Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky and former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene.
"Of all the stupid things this administration has done," Massie wrote on social media recently, "starting a war in the Middle East will prove to be the biggest and most costly blunder." - August 30, 2026
