THE ringgit is projected to trade between 4.13 and 4.16 against the US dollar next week, showing a modest upward bias after experiencing a week of mixed movements driven by global market developments and shifting expectations of US monetary policy.
The local currency weakened at the start of the week on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday, rebounded on Wednesday, and ended the week slightly firmer despite a stronger-than-expected US non-farm payroll report for September, which indicated 119,000 jobs were created, surpassing forecasts.
Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid noted that the prolonged 41-day US government shutdown since October 1 has affected market visibility on economic data points.
“For now, the markets seem to believe that there will be no rate cuts based on the interest rate futures contract,” he told Bernama.
Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd expects a technical correction, with the ringgit likely to consolidate near RM4.15 against the dollar in the coming week, as the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance ahead of its December meeting.
According to the bank, the ringgit eased from 4.13 against the greenback last Friday to 4.15 on Monday and briefly touched 4.16 on Tuesday after market optimism over a US economic reopening gave way to a more hawkish outlook.
“Expectations for a December rate cut fell below 50 per cent as risk-off sentiment revived safe-haven demand for the US dollar. Hawkish Fed minutes and the US Bureau of Labour Statistics’ decision to delay payroll revisions until after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting reinforced this shift,” Kenanga noted.
Despite the strong September payroll gains, the US unemployment rate edged higher, further shaping market expectations.
“With the Fed’s tone turning more hawkish and no major official releases between now and the Dec 10 meeting, markets now assign less than a 40 per cent chance of a December cut,” the bank said.
It added that even if upcoming US data such as jobless claims, ADP employment figures, retail sales, or the Producer Price Index soften, the current Fed ‘pause’ narrative is unlikely to be disrupted.
Kenanga’s medium-term outlook remains unchanged, predicting three additional rate cuts from the Fed over the next year.
“A December pause would not alter our bearish view on the US; it would merely shift the timing. We still think US weakness will become clearer in mid-December, once fresh labour-market data arrive.
For Malaysia, steady foreign inflows into local bonds, continued repatriation of export earnings, and a broadly stable macro backdrop should keep the ringgit relatively firm into year-end,” the bank added.
On a weekly basis, the ringgit closed lower against the US dollar at 4.1460/1495 compared with 4.1290/1345 the previous week but showed gains against a basket of other major currencies.
It strengthened against the British pound to 5.4143/4188 from 5.4313/4385, rose versus the euro to 4.7779/7819 from 4.7983/8047, and gained against the Japanese yen at 2.6453/6479 from 2.6690/6728.
Against regional peers, the ringgit displayed mixed trends. It appreciated against the Singapore dollar to 3.1695/1724 from 3.1720/1765 but weakened against the Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso, and Thai baht.
As investors await further economic indicators and the Fed’s December meeting, the ringgit’s performance reflects both external monetary developments and domestic resilience, with analysts predicting stability in the near term despite global uncertainties. - November 23, 2025
