SINGAPORE – The Singapore flash first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to come in at around -1.2%, an improvement from -2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to Maybank Kim Eng.
“Manufacturing will continue to lead the recovery,” said analysts Chua Hak Bin and Lee Ju Ye in a research report today.
The analysts said the sector remains buoyant despite global chip shortages and port congestion.
“Manufacturing will likely stay healthy in the first half of the year, driven by strong demand for chips and the recovery in chemicals and general manufacturing from their low base last year, especially in the second quarter.
“The pace will likely moderate in the second half, given tighter supply capacity limits and the high base effect for electronics,” said the analysts.
Maybank Kim Eng maintains Singapore GDP forecast at +4.5% in 2021 and +3.0% in 2022.
However, it noted that risk is tilted towards the upside, given manufacturing strength, rapid vaccine roll-out, and further relaxation of social distancing rules.
Separately, the republic’s Trade and Industry Ministry announced that it will release the advance GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2021 on April 14.
The advance GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2021 are computed largely from data in the first two months of the quarter.
They are intended as an early indication of the GDP growth in the quarter, and may be revised when more comprehensive data become available, it said in a statement.
Singapore’s economy contracted by 5.4% in 2020.
The ministry maintains the GDP growth forecast for 2021 at 4.0 to 6.0%. – Bernama, April 8, 2021
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