NEW YORK – Ratings agencies Fitch and Moody’s lowered their assessments of South Africa’s financial strength yesterday, saying the pandemic has further stifled the heavily indebted country’s economy.
The agencies, which had already placed South Africa’s debt in the category of speculative investments, both downgraded their ratings one notch, to BB- at Fitch and Ba2 at Moody’s, and warned that they could lower them again in the medium term.
Fitch said its decision reflects the country’s “high and rising government debt, exacerbated by the economic shock triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic”.
“The very low trend growth and exceptionally high inequality will continue to complicate fiscal consolidation efforts.”
Moody’s noted that South Africa’s finances were already crumbling before the virus arrived, and the downgrade “reflects Moody’s assessment of the impact of the pandemic shock, both directly on the debt burden, and indirectly by intensifying the country’s economic challenges and the social obstacles to reforms”.
S&P Global maintained its BB/B rating for South Africa and kept its outlook at stable.
After difficult months caused by lockdowns to stop Covid-19, S&P said “indications are the economy began to rebound from third-quarter 2020, and we expect a return to positive annual growth alongside slow fiscal consolidation in 2021-2023”.
According to the country’s Stats SA statistics agency, Africa’s most-industrialised economy saw its gross domestic product collapse 51% annualised in the second quarter.
Last week, the agency said more than 30% of the country is unemployed, its highest level since 2008.
The government forecasts GDP to shrink 7.2% this year overall. – AFP, November 21, 2020
