By Murray Hunter
THE Negeri Sembilan state election on Saturday, August 1, should not normally attract much attention, as only 889,490 registered voters are involved.
Thirty-six seats are up for grabs, where PH had a minority government, after Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN) earlier withdrew support for the state administration led by Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun.
This election is seeing some changes in tactics by some of the parties, and the result will set the scene for how the major parties line up in the next general election.
In the Johor state election earlier this month, we saw the Barisan Nasional enjoy a convincing win. The question for Negeri Sembilan now is whether the BN can take the government from the current PH administration.
Based on the momentum from the Johor election, the odds seem stacked in favour of the BN.
Political analysts believe that the BN will take much of the Bersatu vote this time and, with that, win the state government.
However, the election is still volatile. Umno’s vote is perceived to rise at the cost of Bersatu and give it a majority of seats to take the government.
There are a number of events to watch in this election.
First is the PN-BN alliance. On the surface, this alliance appears to be the springboard Umno needs to do very well.
However, many traditional PAS supporters question the electoral alliance and may not support it by voting for Umno where PAS is not standing.
Second is Anthony Loke’s seat of Chennah, which he won with a 2,200-vote margin in 2023.
If Loke loses the seat, the DAP’s position within the unity government may become a major question within the party, forcing the leadership to make a decision about staying.
If Loke holds his seat, there will be some pressure taken off the leadership on the question of staying in the unity government.
This leads to the third test. The DAP should be able to hold onto all the 11 seats it won in the last state election.
For PKR, voter turnout will be the key here. If the party machinery can muster its supporters to come and vote, it may be able to hold its seats and even increase its votes.
Linggi should be PKR’s big test on Saturday.
Aminuddin, the caretaker Menteri Besar, is standing in the Umno stronghold and is seen as a very brave move.
It's going to be a very tough, but not impossible, fight against the Umno incumbent, Datuk Mohd Faizal Ramli.
The seat, located about 36km from Seremban, is considered a Barisan stronghold, with the coalition having held it since 1974.
Aminuddin is up against a three-cornered fight against Mohd Faizal and Datuk Zamri Md Said of Bersatu.
In the 2023 state election, Mohd Faizal won with a 1,461-vote majority in a straight fight against Zamri.
Fourth, Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin’s Wawasan is entering the electoral foray for the first time on Saturday.
The big question is whether Wawasan will fizzle out like Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli’s Bersama in Johor, or show that they can be a legitimate replacement for Bersatu.
PAS support will be very important in these contests. However, it looks like Wawasan may just become a vote spoiler for Bersatu, giving PKR some advantage.
Finally, the MCA will have to show that it is more than just a party hanging onto Umno’s coattails in this election.
There is also another dimension riding on this election. A BN win could lead to friction against the monarchy in the state, and this could lead to some drawn-out drama.
The BN may likely achieve a win in the coming election, but there is also a strong possibility that PH may surprise many with a higher aggregate vote than in 2023.
This will depend largely on the voter turnout and last-minute decisions by fence-sitters this Saturday. – July 31, 2026
