PAKATAN Harapan (PH) needs to reassess its political strategy after suffering a setback in the Negeri Sembilan state election, with the coalition facing challenges in retaining its traditional support base while failing to make significant gains among Malay voters.
Merdeka Centre founder Ibrahim Suffian said the result reflected a combination of factors, including declining support from non-Malay voters and PH’s inability to expand its appeal among Malays.
He said the think tank had anticipated the outcome from nomination day, projecting that Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) could secure between 22 and 24 seats, with several constituencies expected to be closely contested.
According to Ibrahim, one of the biggest factors behind PH’s defeat was the ability of BN and PN to consolidate Malay support by working together.
“The cooperation between BN and PN helped centralise Malay support. Supporters from both sides accepted the cooperation, while Malay voters who were previously undecided also appeared comfortable with the arrangement,” he said.
He said the absence of a major split in the Malay vote between BN and PN proved significant, as PH was unable to secure enough Malay support to offset losses elsewhere.
Ibrahim said PH’s support among Malay voters had remained largely unchanged since the 2022 general election, with the coalition still struggling to break through the 20% mark among the community.
“The Malay vote for PH did not increase. It remained stagnant, especially when the Malay vote for BN and PN was not divided,” he said.
However, he said PH’s challenges were not limited to the Malay electorate, as the coalition also saw a decline among non-Malay voters who had traditionally been a strong support base.
Ibrahim attributed the drop partly to dissatisfaction over the pace of reforms under the federal government, with some communities feeling their concerns were not being sufficiently addressed.
He added that support among Indian voters, including those who had previously backed DAP, also appeared to have weakened.
“The issue for PH is that it has lost support among some of its traditional voters while not gaining enough new support from Malay voters,” he said.
Moving forward, Ibrahim said PH must return to the drawing board and focus more on grassroots engagement instead of concentrating solely on government administration.
He said the coalition had policies and an agenda to offer voters but had struggled to communicate them effectively and compete against the identity-based politics that has strengthened BN and PN’s appeal.
“PH needs to look at how voters perceive the coalition. It needs to find ways to counter identity politics and at the same time build sufficient Malay support while maintaining its support among non-Malay voters,” he said.
On whether the Negeri Sembilan outcome could trigger an early general election, Ibrahim said it would depend largely on political developments at the federal level.
He said that while the possibility remained of attempts to destabilise the government, the current priority appeared to be maintaining political stability.
“The next election will depend on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. But for now, the focus seems to be on stabilising the government,” he said.
With Melaka expected to be the next state facing an election, Ibrahim said the Negeri Sembilan result could provide further indication of the shifting political landscape ahead of the next general election. – August 2, 2026
