UMNO’S push for an early general election is unlikely to persuade Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to dissolve parliament while the party is enjoying stronger political momentum than Pakatan Harapan, says political analyst Dr Azmi Hassan.
The Academy Nusantara senior fellow explained Umno’s confidence had grown following the party’s performance in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, with the coming Melaka state election providing another opportunity to build on that momentum.
PH, however, is dealing with its own difficulties, including unresolved internal issues within DAP and PKR, he said.
“Umno is very enthusiastic after Johor and Negeri Sembilan, and Melaka is next. PH is facing problems when Umno’s momentum is so positive,” Azmi said.
He said this made an early federal election a difficult proposition for Anwar, who leads the unity government comprising PH, Barisan Nasional and several other parties.
“However strong Umno’s pressure may be, the prime minister will not dissolve Parliament until PH becomes stronger or Umno becomes weaker,” he said.
Azmi’s comments come after Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi renewed the party’s call for the 16th General Election (GE16) to be held as soon as possible.
Zahid, who is also Deputy Prime Minister, has argued that Umno and BN are ready to face the electorate and reclaim a stronger mandate to lead the country.
The call has added to growing speculation over the timing of GE16, although the current Parliament does not have to be dissolved immediately.
The five-year parliamentary term runs until 2027, with an election required within 60 days of dissolution.
Anwar has previously said the timing of GE16 would depend on several factors and that any decision to dissolve parliament would ultimately be made after consultation with the coalition partners and the Yang di-Pertuan Agong.
The unity government was formed after the 2022 general election produced a hung parliament, with PH subsequently joining forces with BN and other parties to form the federal administration.
Since then, Umno and PH have had to balance their cooperation in government with their separate political interests ahead of the next general election.
The state elections in Johor and Negeri Sembilan have strengthened Umno’s confidence, while Melaka is now emerging as the next important test for BN.
Melaka must hold its state election by the end of the year. BN won 21 of the 28 seats in the previous election in 2021, while PH won five and Perikatan Nasional two.
For Azmi, the outcome of the coming political contests could therefore be more important than Umno’s current demand for an early federal poll.
As long as Umno remains on an upward trajectory and PH has yet to resolve its internal problems, he said, Anwar would have little political incentive to bring GE16 forward.
The equation could change, however, if PH manages to regain its footing or Umno’s momentum begins to fade.
Until then, Azmi believes calls from within Umno for an early election are unlikely to determine when parliament is dissolved. – September 13, 2026
