KUALA LUMPUR – Gabungan Parti Sarawak, led by Chief Minister Datuk Abang Johari Openg, will almost certainly win the next state election.
One major factor, however, is expected to come into play in the polls predicted for later this year once the emergency order is lifted: the Dayaks.
For decades, the state has had a Muslim leadership, including its longest-serving chief minister, Tun Abdul Taib Mahmud, who held the reins for almost 33 years from March 1981.
Under his watch, the state was seen to have lost some autonomy to the federal government.
It was not until the late Tan Sri Adenan Satem took over in February 2014 that Sarawak began to fervently push for state nationalism once again, including on the issue of the Malaysia Agreement 1963.
Therefore, it came as no surprise when the then Barisan Nasional state government crushed the opposition in the 2016 polls to take 72 of the 82 state seats, its best showing since 2001.
Now under the stewardship of Abang Johari, who is championing the “Sarawak First” sentiment and will face his first state election in office, Sarawak could not be in a more peculiar position.
And, Pakatan Harapan may have thrown a spanner in the works for GPS with its proposal for a state opposition leader from among the Dayak community.
There appears to be growing frustration among the Dayaks, who are the largest ethnic group in the state, at having been marginalised by minority Malays for years, as well as over the issue of native titles.
With the community accounting for 40% of Sarawak’s population and being the majority in over a third of the 82 state constituencies, GPS indeed has cause for concern.
More than 80% of these seats have gone BN’s way in every election since the 1980s, but PH, if it plays its cards right, can give GPS a run for its money.
Iban CM candidate will benefit opposition
Prof James Chin of University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute said it is vital that the opposition picks a chief minister candidate from among the Iban, who belong to the Dayak family.
Twenty-two state seats have an Iban majority, while Muslim-majority ones number 28. Besides the Iban seats, other Dayak-majority constituencies are those dominated by the Bidayuh (7) and Orang Ulu (5).
Talk is rife that Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) presidential council member Baru Bian, who is of the Orang Ulu community, is the opposition’s top pick for chief minister candidate.
“If they are able to find the right Iban candidate, this will surely push the opposition to win more Dayak votes,” Chin told The Vibes.
With Muslim-majority seats solidly with Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu, and Chinese ones with either DAP or the Sarawak United Peoples’ Party, it will be the Dayak constituencies that determine GPS’ performance.
Nevertheless, Chin believes the coalition will retain the state, with the only question being the margin of victory.
For Abang Johari, however, it is important that he wins big, as a poor outing for GPS may trigger defections, resulting in the collapse of the state government, added the political analyst.
“I think it’s okay to lose a few more (seats, instead of maintaining) the 72 won in the last polls. But if he obtains only 50 seats, then expect moves from within (GPS).”
PSB key to getting Dayak support
Universiti Malaysia Sabah academic Assoc Prof Lee Kuok Tiung said PSB, which was recently rebranded and is now targeting Dayak voters, will be the biggest threat to the state’s ruling coalition.
But unlike Chin, who believes Baru is not a suitable candidate for opposition leader and chief minister, Lee is of the view that the former PKR man will be key in wooing Dayak support for the opposition.
If executed properly, PSB and Baru could be the Sarawak version of Sabah’s Warisan and Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, a combination that saw the tide turning in the neighbouring state in the 2018 general election.
“PSB knows it’s hard to make headway in urban seats, and with PKR’s support in Sarawak supposedly diminishing, the party can now play the local sentiment card, especially among the indigenous group,” said Lee.
He said the “Dayakism” agenda is already being pushed, with emphasis on the chief minister coming from the group.
PSB is hitting the right notes when it comes to getting the community’s support, he said.
“At the moment, I think Baru is the best candidate for PSB, although he’s an Orang Ulu. I don’t see any good Iban candidates presently.
“Also, I feel that the party is hoping for a ‘wind of change’ among voters, in trying to score victories in some seats.”
Pakatan, PSB must cooperate
National Council of Professors senior fellow Prof Jeniri Amir shares Lee’s sentiment that PSB will be a major threat to GPS, but said the possibility of the party edging out the coalition depends on two factors.
First is the quality of candidates put forward by PSB in Dayak-majority seats, and second, the cooperation between the party and PH, especially in terms of seat allocation.
The latter seems to be on the line.
Last month, Sarawak PH chairman Chong Chieng Jen announced that an agreement has been reached on seat allocation, with PKR to contest in 47, DAP (26) and Amanah (9).
PSB secretary-general George Lo later said this will not have any bearing on his party, and maintained that it has identified 65 constituencies in which to stand in the next polls.
“Let me make things clear: I still believe GPS will win the election. But if PH and PSB can cooperate – with DAP, in particular, contesting in Chinese seats, and PSB in rural areas – I think they can cause some trouble (for GPS),” said Jeniri.
He noted, however, that the actions taken by Abang Johari since he came to power – by “putting a lot of money in the right areas” – could put a dent in PH and PSB’s dreams.
“The main issue is the politics of (rural) development, and the Dayaks are now seeing that the chief minister is serious about addressing issues concerning basic needs.” – The Vibes, February 14, 2021
