KUALA LUMPUR – The reduced Covid-19 caseload in the past few days is no cause for celebration, said health experts.
They pointed out that the dwindling daily figures are not an indication that the total lockdown is working, but largely due to reduced testing nationwide.
A doctor, who requested anonymity, said any result from the lockdown, which took effect on June 1, can be seen only 14 days after its implementation.
Speaking to The Vibes, he pointed out that a Covid-19-positive patient can be infective for up to 14 days.
Only if cases begin to drop after this period can the lower infection numbers be attributed to the strict movement curbs, he said.
“This is why I believe the reduced cases reported in the past few days are due to less testing being conducted.
If testing is done consistently, at the same rate as previously, then based on statistics and data, the number of infections today would still be above 8,000.”
This belief is shared by senior consultant paediatrician Datuk Dr Amar-Singh HSS, who said it is meaningless to inform the public that daily infections are declining without adjusting for testing numbers and the positivity rate.
“Cases will come down if we test less,” he tweeted.
Health Ministry data shows that the number of tests carried out has shrunk in recent days, with 105,293 conducted on June 4, 103,862 (June 5), 89,998 (June 6), 81,708 (June 7) and 77,030 (June 8).
Daily coronavirus cases have dropped in this period, with 7,748 reported on June 4, 7,425 (June 5), 6,241 (June 6) and 5,271 (June 7). They increased slightly to 5,566 on June 8.
Dr Amar said the reduced testing is despite an increased positivity rate of 7.23% yesterday.
So, if we test as we have been doing seven to 10 days ago (about 126,000 per day), we would have had over 9,000 cases reported (today).”
False sense of security
Consultant paediatrician and neonatologist Datuk Dr Musa Mohd Nordin said it is pertinent that enough testing is done to ensure infection numbers can be accurately identified, so as to not under-diagnose cases.
In a tweet, he said to truly know if the government’s efforts to address the pandemic are effective, the positivity rate from the tests conducted must be below 5% – something that Malaysia has failed to achieve.
He said based on his calculation, yesterday’s caseload should have breached 13,000.
Bandar Kuching MP Dr Kelvin Yii said announcing that fresh cases are on the decline without adjusting for testing numbers and the positivity rate gives a false sense of security to the public.
“You cannot try to ‘game the system’ by testing less,” he tweeted yesterday, adding that with the lockdown in place, the government should ramp up testing.
Instead, (they) have gone the opposite direction, against experts’ advice, to somehow test less during this period.
“This is not only irresponsible, but it also shows the lack of direction and plans for a proper exit strategy after this so-called lockdown.”
The DAP lawmaker added that reducing testing will have other adverse effects, especially for Covid-19 patients, as there is a higher likelihood that they will be brought in for treatment late with more severe complications, increasing the risk of death. – The Vibes, June 9, 2021
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