GE15: analysts mull Anwar’s advantages, challenges in Tambun

KUALA LUMPUR – Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s bid for the Tambun parliamentary seat is a single, strategic move that sends several messages to Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) opponents in the 15th general election (GE15), political observers say.

It shows that the opposition leader is firm at the battle frontlines, “sticking out his neck” in a difficult constituency, which has been an Umno stronghold until 2018.

Although Anwar had long kept to his safe seat of Permatang Pauh for most of his electoral history, he is now leading the charge on new ground.

Standing in Tambun is also a message to “traitors” who quit PH in the 2020 Sheraton Move, leading to the elected government’s collapse. Tambun incumbent Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu is deputy president of Bersatu, which led the 2020 defections from PH under Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

The visibility of the Tambun seat is also PH’s way of showcasing its prime minister candidate, Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM) political analyst, Prof Rusdi Omar told Getaran, The Vibes’ sister news portal.

“It’s part of PH’s strategy to win. It shows Anwar is brave enough to take up the challenge (in an unfamiliar seat). If he wins, it showcases his ability as a political leader, able to contest in different areas.”

Anwar’s contest here also makes Perak a frontline state for PH, coinciding with the PKR president’s intention to “rejuvenate” the silver state, added Rusdi. 

Before 2018, Perak voters had already supported opposition at the state level once, booting out Barisan Nasional (BN) for the first time in 2008 in favour of a Pakatan Rakyat (PH’s predecessor) state government. Through the defections of three assemblymen, BN took back the state in 2009 after a constitutional crisis on the menteri besar’s (MB) legitimacy.

National Council of Professors senior fellow Jeniri Amir said Anwar in Tambun signals that those who defected from PH with the Sheraton Move will be taught a lesson.

Jeniri also sees Anwar’s position as PKR president and opposition leader as an advantage and selling point, much like DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang, who has changed constituencies throughout his political career and won most of the time.

Jeniri dismissed claims that Anwar was “fleeing” his current seat in Port Dickson for fear of defeat.

“It is to give space to other PKR candidates, as Port Dickson is quite a ’guaranteed’ seat for PKR.

“The Tambun seat gives him the best opportunity to show that as PKR president, he can defeat an opponent.”

Unpredictable numbers for Anwar

This would not be without some difficulty, as incumbent Faizal has been Perak MB before. He became MB after the 2018 general election but lost the confidence of a majority of assemblymen in 2020 after switching sides in the Sheraton Move.

Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) political analyst Prof Sivamurugan Pandian noted Faizal’s winning majority in Tambun in 2018 of 5,320 votes over the BN candidate.

Sivamurugan predicted some difficulty for Anwar in GE15 on the assumption that Faizal’s total votes in 2018 (38,661) are combined with votes that went to PAS then (14,948). This is considering that Bersatu and PAS are now allies under Perikatan Nasional (PN). The BN candidate in 2018, meanwhile, received 33,341 votes.

“Looking at how the votes for PAS and Bersatu are now under PN, there will definitely be a clash here for Anwar,” Sivamurugan said.

GE15, however, will be unpredictable because of new and 18 to 20-year-old voters added to the electoral roll.

Sivamurugan also sees Anwar’s bid in Perak as aimed at rousing voters to hand the state back to PH.

Analyst Mazlan Ali agreed that Tambun is not a guaranteed safe seat for Anwar now that Faizal’s party Bersatu is no longer with PH.

He said Faizal was able to win with a 5,000-vote margin in 2018 only because Bersatu and PH then had Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad as a draw for Malay votes.

Otherwise, the parliamentary seat has been repeatedly won by Umno-BN.

“Anwar is taking a risk, and it is bold of him. It’s a good message to voters. People cannot say that he is only choosing a safe seat.” – The Vibes, October 26, 2022