KUALA LUMPUR – Barisan Nasional (BN) and its allies are expected to form the government after the upcoming general elections (GE15), though Pakatan Harapan (PH) will likely win more seats in the polls, a pollster has predicted.
According to the Endeavour-MGC Research Centre, PH is projected to win between 67 and 82 seats, and BN is tipped to secure between 58 and 73 constituencies, while Perikatan Nasional (PN) will likely come in third with between 10 and 40 seats.
“Where exactly the final seat tally falls for each political coalition will depend on individual high-profile candidates battling in certain seats – these contests are expected to impact national voter preference trends, and change seats from safe to marginal, e.g. Tambun, Bagan Datuk, Sg Buloh, Muar, Langkawi, and others,” the centre said in a report released yesterday.
The report by the centre was based on a survey carried out between October 8 and 20, which polled 1,068 registered voters from all parliamentary constituencies in the peninsula.
The survey saw 38% of the respondents feeling that BN would lead the new government post-GE15, whilst 27% felt that PH would emerge to lead the new administration.
A significantly smaller number of respondents (13%) felt that PN would win the elections.
On their favoured coalitions, 41% of the respondents supported PH, while BN received 38%.
However, PN trailed far behind the two older coalitions with only 19% of support from those surveyed.
Looking at historical data relating to the conversion of the popular vote to the number of parliamentary seats won, the report pointed to the election in 2018 when PH, including Bersatu, won 49% of the vote and 98 seats, while BN won 32% to secure 49 seats.
In 2013, the opposition under the Pakatan Rakyat banner won 36% of the popular vote and 59 parliamentary seats, excluding votes won by PAS, while BN won 45% of the popular vote and 86 seats.
The pollster said a hung Parliament is on the horizon if Gabungan Parti Sarawak wins 27 out of 31 federal seats in Sarawak and if PN-leaning Gabungan Rakyat Sabah takes 12 seats with BN taking six in Sabah, while PH takes only two and Warisan sweeps up the balance in Sabah.
The centre said Malaysian voters responding to the survey have a preferred collaboration when it comes to peninsula-centric coalitions, as 35% want BN and PN parties to join forces, while 33% want BN and PH parties to form the government.
It noted that a significantly smaller number of respondents (18%) believed that PH and PN should come together.
“Considering this, and based on where things stand currently, it would be more likely that BN, GPS, and PAS cooperate, rather than stand with PH," the report said.
“If this happens, this trio will very likely surpass the 112 threshold required, and form the next government of Malaysia.” – The Vibes, November 13, 2022
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