PETALING JAYA – The state elections will mainly be a fight between two political blocs – Perikatan Nasional (PN) and the unity government (Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional) – and not about the candidates being fielded.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Azmi Hassan said though a number of new faces are being fielded in the elections, it will not make much of a difference.
He said this election was all about the political parties and their choice of candidates would not really make a difference to voter preference.
“The face of the candidate is not important to the voters but the symbol of the party will play a big role as to who wins the seat.”
On the chances of both political blocs, he said it would be difficult for PN to make inroads in Selangor, Negri Sembilan and Penang and these three states would likely remain in the hands of the unity government (PH-BN).
The best chance for PN to win seats would be in Malay majority seats but the majority would have to be 70% or above. Even at 60%, PN would still face a difficult task, Azmi said.
“Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu will favour PAS. Although PH-BN may win some extra seats, the vast majority of voters especially in Kelantan and Terengganu would favour PAS.”
He said people in Terengganu, especially those who support BN are unhappy with the PAS government but the swing in votes will not be enough to unseat PAS.
Azmi said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is hoping to win Kedah but it is going to be a very difficult task for the coalition, and the state will most likely remain in the hands of PAS.
He said Selangor PN chairman Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali who decided to contest in Hulu Kelang did so because he realised the present seat Bukit Antarabangsa would be unwinnable.
He said the voters in the seat are unhappy with Azmin following the Sheraton Move.
In 2020, Azmin, who was the PKR number two then, defected together with several lawmakers aligned to him, which led to the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan federal government.
Azmin will face PH’s Juwairiya Zulkifli, who is a local girl, on August 12.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Awang Azman Awang Pawi said not all candidates nominated this time will have the support of the grassroots, but it is not something they need to worry about.
He said this election is just like the 15th general election, where personality counts for very little, and the party symbol plays a more important part.
He said last-minute choices were made because both sides are obsessed about winning, and they have left the candidate’s personality and gender aside.
“They have placed importance on winnable candidates. PH-BN have cooperated to ensure the candidate list will benefit both sides. They will work together to ensure their supporters stand by the candidate chosen by the leaders.”
“This election is not about the candidates but about PH-BN facing off against PN.”
He said Azmin was picked for Hulu Kelang because it was his old stomping ground as he had previously won the seat.
Awang Azman said this time around he will face a hard fight as Juwairiya is a local girl who studied in Hulu Kelang before heading off to university.
He said Azmin might be the unofficial menteri besar designate but this does not mean he will win, the seat was chosen because it has a Malay majority.
He said if Azmin fails to win, PN will have a difficult time in picking a menteri besar if they win in Selangor as there are no real leaders in the party available to lead the state. – The Vibes, July 31, 2023
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