MOVE Forward’s 42-year young, rich lad Pita Limjaroenrat, putative prime minister (PM) of Thailand, was virtue-signalling to the investment and banking communities of the USA at his press conference, on playing by “international rules” – code for the US-dominated world order.
He is a product of Harvard and MIT and was flush with the thrill of winning even more seats than the biggest party Pheu Thai, of the last three election cycles. Pita Limjaroenrat was feeling empowered. Voter turnout was high at 75%.
Unwittingly, Pita revealed an anti-China posture when he said “not Bamboo diplomacy.” As future PM, he should not wedge into hard corners under no pressure at all. The Thais bear no hostility to China. His unprovoked statement would have puzzled both Thais and the Chinese.
Many Thai companies (led by Thai-Chinese) conduct lucrative trade with, and invest profitably in China. There are also major Chinese joint-ventures in clean energy, healthcare, fintech, AI and automation in Thailand.
Pita was rather naive at his press conference after the euphoria of the sensational poll victory, and may lack the cunning to handle the Big Powers circling Asia. With the South China Sea & Taiwan bubbling, he will be walking a tightrope. Myanmar, on his border, is spilling refugees and anti-regime activists. He may goof royally if he is rash, brash, and overconfident, as MBA types tend to be.
One hopes Pita can find seasoned political hands around him for the domestic economy, Asean and China relations. If he makes the mistake of surrounding himself with tube-pants digital babies with iPads and spreadsheets, he will blow it. Pita faces a tricky negotiation with the old foxes of the military who have stacked the Senate with their appointees.
The Election Commission declared the Move Forward Party winner with net 151 seats (112 + 39 proportional party list). Pheu Thai had 141 (112 + 29). The MFP and Pheu Thai agreed to an alliance and accepted that Pita would be the PM. They still need to add smaller coalition partners to form the government.
Bhumjaithai was third with 71 (68+3). Of the two military parties, outgoing PM Prayuth Chan-ocha's United Thai Nation won 36 (23+13), while his former party Palang Pracharath, now headed by his deputy, scored 40 (39+1).
Technical disqualification?
The Election Commission is stacked with royalist and military appointees who have not historically been too friendly to populist parties. The EC previously disenfranchised the Thai Rak Thai (Thaksin’s ruling party), and Move Forward’s predecessor Future Forward.
Already, a Palang Pracharath (PP) MP has asked the EC to disqualify Pita because he holds shares in a TV company. The PP MP suggested that all MFP candidates should also be disqualified, as its own party constitution forbids it.
Section 98 of the constitution blocks MPs from holding equity in the media. Pita’s shareholding is from his late father who owned the defunct iTV. He is in charge of his father’s estate and says he cannot yet find a buyer.
MFP’s predecessor, the Future Forward leader, was disqualified for holding equity in a magazine company. This precedent remains hot. The EC secretary-general Sawaeng Boonmee, reserved his comments.
Pita is the new boy on the Asean block. The US and UK press and broadcasters lionise him as the latest Asian star, like they did Aung San Suu Kyi of Myanmar. However, international celebrity status can go to his head, like it did for both Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and The Lady.
Global media has already declared Pita as the next prime minister of Thailand. The road to PM-ship for a civilian not from the royalist elite is booby-trapped – he may not get there.
Need the numbers
The 250-seat appointed Senate can vote with the 500-seat elected House for the prime minister. Pita needs 376 votes. His coalition managed only 309. Pita has to beg 67 seats from the military or smaller parties.
Will he bring the military parties into his tent for stability? One has 36 seats and the other 40. That will be Pita’s first bruising test of political horse trading. What will he be forced to surrender to the generals?
They are the kingmakers like Zahid’s Umno is for Anwar. The military does not play nice. They can use the constitutional process to delegitimise Move Forward – like they did its predecessor. Given the overwhelming rejection of the brass by voters, they are less likely to do that immediately. They also have the tanks in reserve, if they can discover or invent a security threat.
With his pro-Americanism needlessly exhibited, can Pita and his party be accused of being financed and supported by the CIA? The CIA needs no prompting to channel money and support to any future leader, of any country, anywhere. Dictators reach for that excuse regularly in their playbook, if they are not themselves US proxies.
We have heard that refrain during the Bersih rallies in Kuala Lumpur, student protests in Hong Kong, and during the Red-Yellow street confrontations in Bangkok. That citizens get fed up with lying leaders and oust them when allowed does not seem obvious.
Burden of seductive promises
Not an auspicious start for a future PM who promised to loosen the Article 112 Lese Majeste laws, and reform the military-appointed Senate. The military and royalists are dead against tampering with Article 112 – the Senate does not want to be reformed.
Pita’s major coalition partner Pheu Thai has said they will not touch Article 112. Pheu Thai’s patriarch, Thaksin Shinawatra, hopes to secure a royal pardon to come home and secret negotiations with King Maha Vajiralongkorn are well advanced.
Pita can ignore the military entirely, and hook up with the Bhumijathai Party which has 71 seats, led by the minister who legalised weed. The BP is part of the Prayuth ruling coalition and is unlikely to support amendment of Article 112, or reform of the Senate.
Can Pita keep his highly popular (and risky) election promises? Or fall at the first hurdle, disappoint, and anger his voters? All Pita’s choices face pitfalls. He needs far more experience (he has none) for this infighting.
And after that, how long can he survive? Despite international media declaring him the new Thai PM, young Pita may be tripped before he reaches Government House. – The Vibes, May 17, 2023
Cyril Pereira is former publisher of Asia Magazine. He edits data journalism reports for China Daily (Hong Kong). Hong Kong has been his home since 1985
