NASA has further decreased the chance of an impact from asteroid 2024 YR4 to Earth on Dec 22, 2032, to 0.28 per cent, according to the latest NASA estimate on Thursday.
NASA's planetary defence teams will continue to monitor the asteroid to improve predictions of the asteroid's trajectory, said NASA as reported by Bernama-Xinhua today.
With this new data, the chance of an impact with the moon increased slightly to one per cent, according to NASA.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be about 40 to 90 metres. It was first reported by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile on Jan 27, 2024.
The damage caused by an impacting asteroid depends greatly on the exact size and composition of the asteroid, according to NASA.
The exact size of 2024 YR4 is still uncertain, but an airburst is a likely scenario for its size range.
If the asteroid were to enter the atmosphere over the ocean, models indicate that airbursting objects of this size would be unlikely to cause significant tsunami, either from the middle of the ocean or even nearer shore, according to NASA. – February 21, 2025
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