Ukraine conflict could see 2 million casualties by spring, CSIS warns

THE combined number of soldiers killed, injured, or missing in Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine could reach two million by spring, with Russian forces suffering the highest military fatalities of any major power since World War II, according to a report released Tuesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

AP cited on Thursday that the report comes just weeks before the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, as both sides continue to endure a harsh winter of attritional warfare.

Russian strikes overnight on Wednesday damaged an apartment block on the outskirts of Kyiv, killing two civilians and wounding others in Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, and the front-line Zaporizhzhia region.

CSIS estimated that Russian forces have suffered 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 deaths among troops between February 2022 and December 2025.

“Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power,” the report stated.

“No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II.”

Ukraine, with a smaller military and population, has reportedly endured between 500,000 to 600,000 military casualties, including as many as 140,000 deaths.

Analysts caution, however, that neither Moscow nor Kyiv provides timely or verifiable data on military losses, and each side seeks to amplify the other’s casualties.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected the report on Wednesday, saying the research could not be considered “reliable information” and that only Russia’s Ministry of Defense is authorized to release figures on military losses.

The ministry has not published battlefield death counts since a September 2022 statement reporting just under 6,000 Russian soldiers killed.

Ukraine offered no immediate comment, though President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told NBC in February 2025 that over 46,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed since the war began.

At current rates, CSIS projects that combined casualties for Russia and Ukraine may reach 1.8 million and could approach two million by spring. The report draws on independent analysis, Mediazona data, BBC reporting, British government estimates, and interviews with state officials.

The report also highlighted Russia’s slow advance, noting that Russian forces, despite having numerical superiority, are advancing at an average of just 15 to 70 meters per day during major offensives.

This, CSIS noted, is “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century,” with the conflict largely settled into a grinding war of attrition.

Analysts suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin is under no immediate pressure to seek a settlement, despite difficulties along the roughly 1,000-kilometre front line.

Russia’s forces are reported to number approximately 700,000 troops in Ukraine, according to Putin’s statements over the past two years, though these figures cannot be independently verified.

The recent Russian strikes on Ukraine involved one ballistic missile and 146 strike drones, of which 103 were intercepted or disabled by Ukrainian air defenses.

Russia reported shooting down 75 Ukrainian drones, including 47 over Crimea and the Krasnodar region, while Ukraine claimed a strike on the Khokholskaya oil depot in Russia’s Voronezh region caused a fire.

Officials reported that a man and a woman were killed in the Bilohorodka area near Kyiv, while at least nine others were injured across Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia, underlining the persistent civilian toll amid ongoing military operations.

The CSIS report underscores the staggering human cost of the conflict and highlights the slow, attritional nature of Russia’s campaign in Ukraine, as both military and civilian populations continue to endure severe consequences more than three years into the war. - January 29, 2026