IRAN has issued a stark warning of military escalation against the United States, threatening retaliatory strikes if Washington renews attacks, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid a protracted conflict that is shaking global energy markets.
Two months into the war involving the U.S., Israel and Iran, the closure of the vital shipping lane — through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass — has driven sharp volatility in energy prices and heightened fears of a wider economic slowdown.
A fragile ceasefire has been in place since April 8, but diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis have stalled, with Tehran continuing to block the strait in response to a U.S. naval blockade targeting its oil exports.
Reuters, on Friday, quoted a US official saying that Donald Trump was scheduled to receive a briefing on Thursday outlining options for fresh military strikes intended to force Iran back to the negotiating table.
Reports of the planned briefing initially pushed Brent crude above US$126 per barrel before easing to around US$114.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei downplayed expectations of swift diplomatic progress.
“Expecting to reach a result in a short time, regardless of who the mediator is, in my opinion, is not very realistic,” he said.
Tensions remained high on the ground, with Iranian media reporting air defence activity in parts of Tehran, where systems were said to be engaging drones and unmanned surveillance aircraft.
Regional spillover risks also intensified, with the United Arab Emirates banning its citizens from travelling to Iran, Lebanon and Iraq, and urging those already there to return home.
Trump reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons and said fuel prices would “drop like a rock” once the war ended, underscoring the domestic political stakes ahead of upcoming U.S. elections.
Iran’s military leadership, however, signalled readiness for further confrontation. A senior official from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any renewed U.S. attack would trigger “long and painful strikes” on American positions across the region.
Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi was quoted as saying: “We've seen what happened to your regional bases, we will see the same thing happen to your warships.”
In a strongly worded message, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei indicated Tehran’s intention to maintain control over the strait.
“Foreigners who come from thousands of kilometres away ... have no place there except at the bottom of its waters,” he said, adding that Iran would eliminate “the enemies' abuses of the waterway”.
The crisis has prompted concern at the highest international level.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that prolonged disruption to the strait could have severe global consequences.
“The longer this vital artery is choked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage,” he told reporters in New York, cautioning that extended instability could depress global growth, drive up inflation and push tens of millions more into poverty and hunger.
The United States faces a looming deadline to either wind down the conflict or justify its continuation to Congress, with analysts expecting the administration to seek an extension or bypass the requirement altogether.
Despite mounting economic strain exacerbated by the blockade, analysts suggest Iran may be able to sustain a prolonged standoff, complicating Washington’s strategy of economic pressure.
Military options under consideration reportedly include expanding strikes, maintaining the blockade, or deploying ground forces to secure parts of the strait and reopen it to commercial shipping.
At the same time, Washington has floated plans for a multinational maritime coalition to safeguard navigation through the waterway once hostilities subside, though European partners have signalled willingness to participate only after the conflict ends.
Diplomatic channels remain active but fragile, with regional mediators including Pakistan seeking to prevent further escalation as indirect exchanges continue between Tehran and Washington. - May 1, 2026
