KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysia’s exports are likely to grow between 24% and 25% this year, with slower growth expected in the fourth quarter.
AmBank Research said growth is likely to be affected by a bleaker global economic outlook.
“With the latest trade numbers, economic growth for the third quarter of 2022 (Q3) will likely be higher than the Q2 growth of 8.9%.
“Based on our current estimates, the forecast gross domestic product growth rate for Q3 is around 12-14%,” it said in a note today.
For the rest of 2022, AmBank Research expects the export performance to be modest, mainly due to slower shipments of electrical and electronic products, as some electronics products have been launched in the market and technology companies are seeing a slowdown in their orders.
In addition, commodity prices, including crude palm oil, have cooled down.
“Energy-related shipments such as liquefied natural gas are expected to be stronger, especially moving towards winter and higher demand from Japan, China, and South Korea,” it said.
AmBank Research said external trade continued to show robust growth in September 2022. Overall trade increased by 31.4% year-on-year, bringing total trade for the month to RM256.9 billion.
Exports expanded robustly by 30.1%, with a total value of RM144.3 billion.
Total exports for the nine months of 2022 are now at RM1.159 trillion, much higher than during the same period in 2021 of RM889.4 billion.
“This also means that the average export growth between January and September this year expanded to 30.2%, above our 24-25% forecast for this year,’’ it noted. – Bernama, October 20, 2022
