Bersatu’s fragile GE15 quest for Malay seats

KUALA LUMPUR – During the May 2018 general election, the battles in the Malay heartlands were predominantly multi-cornered, specifically, between Umno, PAS and Bersatu.

Despite the shocking loss that Barisan Nasional eventually suffered, its leading component, Umno, still won the bulk of Malay-majority parliamentary seats  – 54 – a feat attesting to its deep-rooted clout among rural Malays.

Bersatu, on the other hand, won only 13 constituencies.

However, owing to Malaysia’s political fluidity, the three parties are now allies, and will this week discuss seat distribution among themselves for the 15th general election.

Dividing the parliamentary seats will likely be tricky as 14 of Bersatu’s 31 current seats were originally Umno’s, but slipped away from the latter following a series of party-hopping by its MPs to Bersatu after GE14.

These 14 Malay-majority seats are: Jeli, Larut, Tanah Merah, Mersing, Hulu Terengganu, Sabak Bernam, Tasik Gelugor, Masjid Tanah, Setiu, Bagan Serai, Beluran, Kudat, Beaufort and Libaran.

Umno insiders were tight-lipped on the leadership’s stand on these seats. 

However, one source said the general mood in the party was hinted at by vice-president Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin earlier this month.

“They (Bersatu) realise that Malay politics is important, but they have no agenda to make it work,” he said in a statement on December 1.

“Umno and PAS have more than enough strength. The rest make the space a little bit too crowded.”

The confidence that Khaled has in Umno’s prowess is not without merit.

Despite losing GE14, Umno, representing BN and teaming up with PAS, won four of the five by-elections held last year. 

Bersatu, which was then in Pakatan Harapan, competed in two of those polls, and suffered crushing defeats.

“I don’t see how Umno will let Bersatu go anywhere near those 14 seats,” said geostrategist Azmi Hassan.

Umno to demand seats taken by Bersatu

The recent ouster of Bersatu No. 2 Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu as Perak menteri besar when he lost a confidence vote in the state assembly demonstrates the extent of Umno’s willingness to do the unthinkable, said Azmi.

One of the party’s assemblymen had tabled a motion to force the vote, exerting pressure to achieve the desired result – to have an Umno rep become the new menteri besar.

“Umno will have to bear the most intense grassroots rebellion if they cannot wrest the 14 seats back from Bersatu,” said Azmi. 

“So, there is no doubt that Umno will demand these 14 seats that it won in GE14 by virtue of its own influence.”

However, the fact that Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin was willing to accept a new Perak menteri besar from Umno after the “backstabbing” in the state assembly and an apology from Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi indicates that a compromise is possible, added Azmi.

“Both parties need each other in order to not only retain Putrajaya, but also to survive. I think the leaders are willing to compromise. So, the grassroots need to take their cue from this.”

But whether Umno and Bersatu can finalise and agree on GE15 seat distribution this week is something that political analyst Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi believes is unlikely to happen.

“Their political demographics are the same. Semi-urban and rural Malays. But, Umno will not surrender its traditional seats willy-nilly. I think it will probably take more than a year for them to iron out the matter.”

Bersatu’s clout declining

Besides that, Awang Azman said, there is no guarantee Bersatu will be well-received in the Malay heartlands given some of its blunders, particularly the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) controversy that saw the Bersatu-led government acquiescing to Umno’s demand for contributors to be allowed to withdraw savings from Account 1.

“Bersatu’s clout has been going downhill since the EPF issue, especially among the Malays. I don’t see any difference in popularity between the leaderships of Muhyiddin and (former party chairman) Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.”

A workaround that Awang Azman believes Bersatu can explore is to contest seats now held by PKR.

“Bersatu would step into PAS’ territories if it were to contest Amanah-held seats. But, the question is on how well-equipped the party is to go against PKR, whose seats are in urban areas and mostly racially mixed.

“If the party can win even two or three PKR seats (in GE15), then that is good enough.” – The Vibes, December 17, 2020