THE Nenggiri state by-election in Kelantan is shaping up to be a stiff contest between the incumbent, Perikatan Nasional (PN), and the challenger, Barisan Nasional (BN).
The seat was last won by a slim majority of 810 votes.
Political scientist Datuk Prof Sivamurugan Pandian said that despite the inroads BN made in the campaign, sluggish economic growth and steep living costs have given PN many plus points in the seat, where 85% of the electorate are Malay-Muslim.
He said a large segment of the Malay-Muslim demographic remains loyal to PAS, which has governed Kelantan for the past 33 years.
Many Malay-Muslim voters cannot accept the national unity government, which has been linked to cronyism and nepotism, he said.
Sivamurugan said Kelantan PAS has grown from strength to strength even after the demise of its leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat.
PN won 43 of the 45 seats in the Kelantan assembly in the last state elections.
Former navy officer Mohd Rizwadi Ismail is the PN candidate for Nenggiri. He is up again BN's Mohd Azmawi Fikri, who heads the Gua Musang Umno Youth division.
Rizwadi, who was the Gua Musang PAS youth chief, joined Bersatu two days before he was announced as the PN candidate.
The by-election was called after Kelantan Speaker Datuk Mohd Amar Nik Abdullah declared the seat held by Mohd Azizi Abu Naim vacant.
In August state elections last year, Azizi won Nenggiri by a narrow 810 votes.
More than 20,000 people will vote tomorrow.
Sivamurugan said that even though Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah was leading the BN election campaign for Nenggiri, the voters of Kelantan still despise Umno.
Tengku Razaleigh won the Gua Musang parliamentary seat in 1974 and held it until 2022, when he lost it by a mere 200 votes.
The Kelantan prince, 87, is semi-retired but remains an influential force in Umno.
Sivamurugan said the Chinese and Indian voters are not interested in the by-election, leaving the outcome to be decided by the Malays.
He said the outcome could mirror that of the recent Sungai Bakap by-election in Penang, where PAS thumped Umno by more than 4,000 votes.
Sivamurugan said the Orang Asli voters are split between PN and BN.
"PAS sells in Kelantan. Everywhere we go, we see its moon symbol on banners and flags. Although it is PAS's ally Bersatu which is running, the feeling is that PAS is the one vying for the seat."
It will be back to the drawing board if the national unity combination of BN and Pakatan Harapan cannot win on Malay-Muslim ground, said Sivamurugan.
Tengku Razaleigh has conceded that it will be an uphill battle for BN, which he said is the underdog in the polls.
He said that although the by-election was on his home turf, where he has dominated for the past 50 years, the constituents tend to favour the incumbent.
Amanah politician Datuk Wan Abdul Rahim Wan Abdullah said BN has a chance. The Orang Asli votes are crucial, he added.
He said PAS has never won in Gua Musang, where Nenggiri is located, even though it has governed Kelantan for 33 years.
This is because the constituents largely remain loyal to Tengku Razaleigh.
Wan Rahim ran twice in Gua Musang on the PAS ticket, losing both times to Tengku Razaleigh.
The former teacher said PAS is losing popularity in Kelantan simply because it has no new talents to replace its technocrats, most of whom have quit to join Amanah.
Even though the late Nik Abdul Aziz was driven by a strict religious code, the then-PAS spiritual adviser also had a good cadre of professionals to guide him in the administration of the state, said Wan Rahim.
"This is now missing in Kelantan: a faithful group of professionals to advise the present leadership on how to move forward in the state. We have gone downhill and are largely dependent on federal aid," said Wan Rahim.
Umno secretary-general Datuk Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki said that there is a need for a higher opposition presence in Kelantan for checks and balances.
Sivamurugan said the by-election is not about one party versus another.
"It is simply about the sentiments of the majority Malay-Muslims. How do they feel about the present leadership, and what are their aspirations?" said Sivamurugan.
There is much riding on the outcome, and both sides have deployed their best machinery apparatus in the constituency.
PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin arrived in town on Wednesday to lead the campaign for his party and will stump for the candidate until Friday. – August 16, 2024.
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