A STRONG alliance between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH), has the potential to become the largest political bloc in the upcoming Sabah State Election, according to realistic seat simulations, although no party is projected to win an outright majority.
Senior Lecturer at Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) Ismail Rakibe said field research indicates that a combined BN-PH tally could reach approximately 30 seats, dependent on outcomes in several marginal constituencies.
“The current projection shows BN with around 22 seats, the highest of any party, followed by Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) with 17, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) 15, PH eight, Perikatan Nasional (PN) five, and one to two seats held by independents or minor parties,” he said.
Ismail noted that the fragmented result could lead to a “hung assembly,” requiring post-election negotiations to form a state government.
He added that BN has introduced around 80 percent new faces among its candidates, representing the highest rate of renewal among major parties.
“Warisan is projected at around 40 percent and GRS about 30 percent,” he said.
The research also highlighted the issues dominating voter concerns in Sabah: cost of living and employment opportunities, basic infrastructure such as water, electricity and roads, and state rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963.
“Voters assess how effectively the state administration can manage these issues in conjunction with its relationship with the Federal Government.
BN-PH enjoys a relative advantage in this regard due to the perception that closer ties with Putrajaya could accelerate project delivery,” Ismail explained.
However, he cautioned that this advantage is relative rather than decisive. Factors such as historical perceptions, potential three-cornered fights in Muslim Bumiputera areas, and internal party dynamics in certain constituencies could directly influence outcomes in marginal seats.
Ismail added that other parties maintain distinct strengths: Warisan remains influential in the East Coast, GRS holds incumbency but faces pressure on basic service delivery, PH has urban strongholds, and PN could play a role in splitting votes in selected areas.
“The Sabah 2025 State Election is highly competitive and open,” he said. “BN enters nomination day with a slightly stronger bargaining position, although this does not guarantee an outright victory. The outcome will largely depend on post-election negotiations and coalition-building.” - November 14, 2025
