POLITICAL analysts say Umno is unlikely to abandon its current cooperation with Pakatan Harapan (PH) in favour of aligning with PAS or Perikatan Nasional (PN), citing both electoral considerations and political advantages the party currently enjoys in government.
Political analyst Azmi Hassan of Academy Nusantara said speculation that PAS leaders could draw Umno into a new alliance is overstated.
He noted that figures such as Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar—often referred to as “Dr Sam”—are unlikely to serve as a major political attraction capable of shifting Umno away from its current arrangement with PH.
“I do not think Dr Sam is such a strong attraction that Umno would abandon PH to work with PAS,” Azmi said.
He added that the existing cooperation between Barisan Nasional (BN) and PH also minimises electoral complications, particularly in terms of overlapping constituencies.
Under the current arrangement, the number of parliamentary seats contested by both sides is relatively limited.
In contrast, Azmi said a potential alliance between Umno and parties within PN—particularly PAS—would create significantly higher seat overlaps due to traditional contest patterns.
“The overlapping seats would be much higher if Umno were to work with PN and PAS compared with its current cooperation with PH,” he said.
Azmi also noted that declining support for DAP could work to Umno’s advantage within the PH partnership, as the party may seek to capitalise on shifting voter sentiment to expand its parliamentary representation.
He said Umno is reportedly targeting up to 115 parliamentary seats as part of a broader strategy to strengthen its political influence.
“DAP losing some popularity could work to Umno’s advantage because the party hopes to gain more seats,” Azmi said.
Meanwhile, political scientist Prof, James Chin said Umno currently benefits from a favourable position within the federal government led by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, making a shift toward PN politically unattractive.
Chin noted that Umno currently holds between five and six federal ministerial posts, a level of representation that would likely be difficult to secure if the party were to align itself with PN.
“At the moment, Umno has several federal ministers. If it were to join PN or align with PAS, it would not get a deal as good as the one it currently has,” he said.
He added that within PN, Umno could risk being overshadowed by dominant parties such as PAS and Bersatu.
“In PN, Umno would likely face pressure from PAS and Bersatu and would not enjoy the same leverage it currently holds,” Chin said.
Chin also stressed that such a political realignment is unlikely while the party remains under the leadership of Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.
“Under Zahid’s leadership, Umno will not join PN,” he said.
Taken together, both analysts believe that political calculations and practical considerations strongly favour Umno maintaining its current alliance rather than pursuing a new partnership with PAS or PN. – March 11, 2026
