Will Muhyiddin win the numbers game?

KUALA LUMPUR – As the Dewan Rakyat heads for the all-important, decisive budget vote set for this evening, the numbers – although appearing to slightly favour Perikatan Nasional (PN) at the moment – could not have been closer.

Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s administration holds a razor-thin majority, with the backing of 112 MPs, going by the last Dewan Rakyat seating arrangement, and following the death of Gerik MP Datuk Hasbullah Osman.

This comprises Barisan Nasional lawmakers (42), Bersatu (31), PAS (18), Gabungan Parti Sarawak (18), and one each from STAR, United Sabah Party, and an independent lawmaker supporting on confidence and supply. 

The opposition, meanwhile, has 108 lawmakers – DAP (42), PKR (38), Amanah (11), Warisan (8), Pejuang (4), United Sarawak Party (2), Muda (1), Upko (1) and an independent Maszlee Malik. Warisan’s Batu Sapi MP Datuk Liew Vui Keong died in October.

However, with Umno’s Kinabatangan MP Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin currently under quarantine after returning from Sabah and Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah saying he will abstain, the government is left with a mere 110 MPs, just two more than the opposition.

Such numbers are not very convincing, particularly as Muhyiddin looks to reaffirm his position as the prime minister.

As things stand, there are a few ways the Budget voting could potentially end.

Scenario 1: Budget passed with all MPs voting along party lines

The first and most likely scenario is that – barring Bung Moktar and Tengku Razeleigh – all the remaining MPs vote according to their political affiliation and based on their parties’ stance.

In such a case, PN’s budget will be passed as it would have 110 votes as opposed to the opposition’s 108.

Twenty BN MPs with government positions pledged their support for Muhyiddin just two days ago. 

The biggest challenge for the prime minister now would be to convince Umno backbenchers to support him, amid growing discontent in the largest Malay party over how it is being treated.

Should Muhyiddin be able to persuade the MPs to get behind him and his PN government, it should be smooth sailing, as far as the Budget is concerned.

Scenario 2: Budget rejected with some government MPs voting against, abstaining

Another possible outcome is that several government lawmakers reject or abstain, effectively leading to the Budget being rejected.

Assuming all 108 opposition parliamentarians reject the Budget, all it takes is two government MPs to reject, or three to abstain, to cause the Supply Bill to fail.

This is not unlikely, considering the sentiment among Umno backbenchers who are unhappy that Bersatu has taken up more “strategic” cabinet positions, as well as the post of Sabah chief minister, among other things.

Pekan MP Datuk Seri Najib Razak had, during his Budget 2021 debate, said BN would be voting against if two of their conditions – a blanket loan moratorium until June and a one-off RM10,000 EPF withdrawal – are not met. 

Opposition leader and PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, meanwhile, has said the opposition will not support the Supply Bill in its current form as many of its suggestions were not taken into consideration and is in defiance of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong’s request for a non-political Budget geared towards allocations for frontliners in the fight against Covid-19.

To make matters worse, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad just yesterday confirmed that the four MPs from Pejuang will be rejecting the Budget.

Scenario 3: Anwar shows his numbers

Anwar’s September surprise comes to fruition as up to 15 Umno MPs vote down the bill along with Warisan and Gabungan Parti Sarawak, giving the Budget up to 130 nays.

This will be interpreted as the support Anwar had said he had, and another trip to the palace is inevitable.

Scenario 4: A tie in the House, speaker has final say

Another possibility is the number of MPs who vote for the budget is the same as those who vote against it, which could happen if enough MPs from the government bench are absent or decide to reject or abstain.

Should this unprecedented situation occur, Dewan Rakyat Speaker Datuk Azhar Azizan Harun will have the casting vote, as is accorded to him under the federal constitution and parliamentary Standing Orders.

Article 62(3) of the constitution and Standing Order 45(1) state that the person presiding the Dewan shall cast his vote whenever necessary to avoid equality of votes, provided he is not a member of the House.

If it comes to this, the Budget will likely be passed, considering Azhar was appointed speaker on the advice of Muhyiddin, hinting at his alliance with the prime minister. – The Vibes, November 26, 2020