KUALA LUMPUR – While murmurs about the axeing of several Umno bigwigs from the general election have reverberated for some time, the official announcement made by party president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has nonetheless caused some heads to turn.
For some, the immediate question that comes to mind is whether the move is a calculated decision that weighs potential risks faced by the party, or one taken in haste, considering the proximity of the national polls and the names involved.
Tan Sri Annuar Musa, Datuk Seri Shahidan Kassim, and Datuk Seri Tajuddin Abdul Rahman are known in their own rights as Umno warlords with huge influence in their respective constituencies, and to a certain extent, their states.
Incidentally, they are aligned with caretaker prime minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who was previously reported to have led a separate faction within Umno to take on what is described as the party’s “court cluster” led by Zahid.
This has raised speculation that the culling of these leaders is part of a larger attempt by Zahid to position himself as the prime ministerial frontrunner by ridding Umno of rogue members that could jeopardise his position.
While this appears to be the general sentiment among many, going by the public reaction on social media, experienced analysts take a different view on the matter.
They believe that Zahid’s motivation is simple: to cleanse Umno of members that can further threaten its stability in the same manner that almost broke the party apart in recent months.
Whether the manoeuvre will prove to be a tactical gambit remains to be seen, the observers said, warning that it could potentially backfire if the affected leaders and their strong supporters’ base boycott Umno.
The shuttering of several Umno divisions’ operation rooms in protest against the axeing of their incumbent lawmakers should already serve as a warning sign that a backlash could hurt the party during the 15th general election (GE15).
Zahid must make peace with dropped candidates
For National Council of Professors senior fellow Prof Jeniri Amir, how the top leadership placates these leaders between now and polling day could likely determine the outcome of the election.
“Obviously, the dropping of certain warlords will have an impact. Umno must not underestimate their influence.
“We can expect defeat for Umno in some of the incumbent seats, so how the party appeases the dropped candidates is vital,” he said.
They need to coax and bait them with rewards, like the promise of government-linked corporation positions. By having these kinds of agreements, perhaps it should be able to pipe them down,” Jeniri told The Vibes yesterday.
During the announcement of Barisan Nasional’s (BN) candidates yesterday, Zahid had said that the selection process was based on certain key principles, with priority given to, among others, members who are loyal to the party.
Perhaps recognising the potential backlash over the dropping of some of the warlords, the president yesterday urged those not picked as candidates to avoid resorting to protest, “cah keting” and sabotage.
Zahid said Umno and BN were forced to make the changes to restore confidence in themselves, while pointing out that the dropped names were those who had been given numerous chances to contest in the past.
Jeniri said the justification is fair. He pointed to the results of the recent Melaka and Johor state elections, where Umno secured landslide wins despite fielding numerous new faces.
He said this should serve as evidence that voters long for young blood.
The academic added that the notion created by certain quarters that the selection of candidates is to aid the party president in his bid to prime ministership does not hold water.
“He knows full well the implication and possible public rage if this happens,” Jeniri said.
The way I see it is that he is sending a strong message to the party not to go against the leadership and threaten the party. This way, hopefully, there will be no more dissenting voices.
“Because what other choices does he have? Yes, it is a gamble within the larger picture of Umno’s chances in the election, but if you put anyone else in Zahid’s shoes, they would probably do the same.
“In fact, PKR did the same thing just recently. It’s not abnormal,” he said in reference to several PKR leaders who were previously aligned to party renegade Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali being dropped from contesting in the coming election.
Umno at risk? Let’s wait and see
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia academic Assoc Prof Kartini Aboo Talib said the nominations of abundant new faces over more recognised and popular leaders offer as much sustainability in the long run as it does lend risk to the party.
She explained that considering some of the candidates dropped are well-known political “heavyweights” who have served as MPs for long periods, there is a likelihood of Umno losing seats these individuals contest to its opponents.
How things pan out may depend on whether the axed leaders can use their influence, energy, and resources into strengthening Umno and ensuring its victory in the polls.
Asked if she believes the recent development on Umno candidates will alter the party’s chances in the election, Kartini said: “Let us wait and see how Zahid’s move will boost or bury BN.”
Nonetheless, the academic pointed out that a recent survey conducted by social engagement centre O2 Research found that BN still has the edge over Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional.
On suggestions that Zahid is deliberately ditching those aligned to Ismail Sabri to position himself as prime minister, Kartini said this is preposterous, as the candidate for the government’s top post will only be decided by the winning party after polling day.
She also noted that while the selection of candidates may not sit well with some, the final list is a collective decision made by the election committee, and not at the sole discretion of the president.
“In that case, members have to respect the decision,” she said. – The Vibes, November 3, 2022
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