KUALA LUMPUR – Perikatan Nasional (PN) has been told to learn from the defeat of Barisan Nasional (BN) in the 15th general election (GE15) before moving to dissolve state assemblies in three states, namely Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan.
Nusantara strategic research academy fellow Prof Azmi Hassan said that although PN is seen as having the potential of maintaining its dominance in the three states, a decision to hold state elections during the monsoon season could backfire on them.
He said that PN should learn from BN’s error of wanting to hold GE15 as soon as possible – based only on the momentum it gained through state elections in Melaka and Johor.
Acknowledging that PN is in a comfortable position in Malay-majority areas based on GE15 results, Azmi said PN’s momentum has not taken into account its failure to form the federal government.
“The (Arau MP) Datuk Seri Shahidan Kassim’s proposal is indeed logical but within a month after GE15, a lot of what the voters have learned by voting for PN or more precisely PAS, especially in the east coast, is that it will not bring much change.
“PN is also in a bad situation (as the opposition), worse still, PN will probably only consist of Bersatu and PAS,” he told The Vibes’ Bahasa Malaysia sister portal Getaran when contacted.
Recently, Shahidan, who steered Perlis PN in wresting the state from BN, suggested that PN-governed states – namely Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu – dissolve their respective assemblies to make way for polls.
According to the former Federal Territories minister, now is the best time for PN to hold state elections based on the support it obtained during GE15.
Taking a different view, Azmi said that the “momentum logic” advanced by Shahidan had already been proven to be a failure after the defeat of the BN-led government which dissolved Parliament.
“So, you have to be careful using this logic of momentum because BN has learned and the lesson against BN is very strong.
“In this case, Shahidan Kassim’s (proposal) is logical, but this can be self-inflicted because the voters will actually accuse the three states under PAS of not wanting to hold PRN (state elections) together with GE15, not because of the floods but because they have no confidence (to win).
“When there is new confidence to dissolve state assemblies, then (PN) will be accused of giving more importance to the political agenda than the agenda of the people themselves,” he said.
However, when asked about PN’s potential if state polls are held in Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan next year, Azmi said the coalition has no problem maintaining its dominance in those states.
“There is no problem because PAS’ influence remains strong in the three states, (however) on the condition that (they) use the PAS symbol instead of PN,” he said.
Meanwhile, senior lecturer at the Razak Faculty of Technology and Informatics, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Mazlan Ali, believes that the percentage of voters who will go out to vote in the three states will decrease compared to GE15 if state polls are held in the near future.
According to him, although the momentum remains in favour of PN, voters may be too lazy to go back to their respective villages after facing GE15 – in addition to having to think about financial constraints.
“Apart from that, there are many other factors that will contribute to the turnout, for example the federal government between BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH) has already been formed, the ringgit is getting stronger and investors’ confidence is more positive towards the current government.
“Many other things done by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim are able to change the trend of voters.
“However, there is no denying that the PN’s momentum is still there, but I don’t think it will be like (the results of) GE15,” he said.
Elaborating further, Mazlan said that a combination of PH and BN might be able to “steal” some seats, especially in Kedah, though that would not happen in Kelantan and Terengganu.
“In Kelantan and Terengganu, if we look at it, PN won so comfortably that it will be difficult for PH and BN to overthrow them, but the coalition may be able to get a few seats in the Kedah assembly.
“All I can say is that we need to see the results of GE15 in the Padang Serai (Kedah) parliamentary and Tioman (Pahang) state seats. If PN loses, that is a bad sign for state elections to be held,” he said. – The Vibes, December 7, 2022
