MANILA – The Philippines’ election season kicked off today with TV celebrities, political scions and at least one inmate expected to be among thousands of candidates vying for posts from president to town councillor.
A week-long registration process launches a typically noisy – and deadly – seven months of campaigning for more than 18,000 positions, but the raging Covid-19 pandemic and economic misery caused by virus lockdowns could dampen the party atmosphere.
A successor to President Rodrigo Duterte, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a second six-year term, will be elected in the ballot next May that is expected to draw more than 60 million voters.
Duterte, whom polls show remains almost as popular as when he swept to victory in 2016 on a promise to rid the country of drugs, has declared that he will run for the vice-presidency.
Among the front runners to replace him are his daughter Sara and ally Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, the son and namesake of the country’s former dictator.
Francisco Domagoso, an ex-actor and city mayor known by his screen name Isko Moreno, and newly retired boxing superstar Manny Pacquiao are planning to run.
Pacquiao, a senator, was driven in a bus emblazoned with “Man of Destiny” to register for the race today.
A Facebook Live broadcast of the journey through Manila’s morning traffic showed scores of supporters standing beside the road, waving the national flag.
Pacquiao dismissed as “just a number” a recent poll showing him in fourth place for preferred president.
Election campaigns in the chaotic democracy are normally raucous and star-studded, with contenders deploying celebrities to pull crowds to rallies.
Candidates are expected to perform onstage, with their charisma, singing and dancing judged more critically than their policies.
“It is a circus,” political analyst Tony La Vina told AFP.
“People have a sense that in this brief moment, they are the boss, to be wooed by suitors whom they demand sing, dance, and act as clowns.”
This election season could be less festive, said analysts – though probably just as deadly, as some politicians resort to violence to eliminate rivals.
Campaigning will be largely on social media platforms, predicted La Vina, as surging coronavirus infections and the glacial pace of vaccinations restrict mass gatherings.
In a country where personality and name recognition are key to winning votes, this could improve the chances of lesser-known candidates, said Ronald Mendoza, dean of the Ateneo School of Government here.
“If you are a relative nobody with some money for social media and some following, you may actually get a not-insignificant number of votes.”
But, they will face the enduring challenge of powerful clans that dominate national, provincial and local posts in the absence of a strong party system.
Deep pockets – and huge donations – are essential in the country plagued by poverty, corruption and a culture of patronage.
“Electoral workers can still go door to door buying votes,” a long-time observer told AFP.
“The money just flows like water.”
‘Teflon Duterte’
As jockeying intensified ahead of today’s start of registrations, analyst Richard Heydarian said it is too early to pick a likely winner in the presidential race, which has “inherent unpredictabilities”.
“This is just a single round, first past the post – there’s no run-off elections. All you need to do is win more votes than everyone else.
“Much will depend on who’s going to run. Much will depend on how many are going to run. Much will depend on presidential debates (and) what kind of antics the candidates are going to pull.”
Duterte has not yet announced his preferred successor – a perennial preoccupation for outgoing presidents seeking to avoid arrest.
Many expect that it will be Sara, who will likely protect him from criminal charges at home and at the International Criminal Court, where prosecutors are probing into his deadly drug war.
Sara, mayor of the southern city of Davao – a position held by her father before he became president – has said, however, that she will not run if Duterte seeks the vice-presidency.
That is probably a tactic to generate publicity because Filipinos “love a reluctant candidate”, said University of the Philippines political science Prof Jean Franco.
Even if Sara misses the October 8 deadline for registration, she still has until November 15 to make a late entry – as her father did in 2015.
A presidential endorsement is normally a “kiss of death”, said Jorge Tigno of pollster Social Weather Stations, but Duterte’s approval rating in its surveys stood at 62% in June compared with 64% in 2016.
“He tends to shake off most accusations of impropriety or extrajudicial killings,” said Eurasia Group analyst Peter Mumford.
“He’s known as ‘Teflon Duterte’ for a reason.” – AFP, October 1, 2021
