NEW YORK – European stocks sank yesterday along with oil prices, while the euro slumped towards parity with the dollar on deepening recession fears as central banks contend with soaring inflation.
European stock markets fell nearly 3%, weighing on Wall Street early in the day before US stocks staged a turnaround.
“Fears about the health of the world economy are circulating and that is why we are seeing major declines in stocks, energies, and industrial metals,” said market analyst David Madden at Equiti Capital.
The euro sank to a 20-year dollar low of US$1.0238 as investors eyed aggressive interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation, in contrast with the European Central Bank, seen as planning more modest increases.
The main international crude oil contract, Brent North Sea, fell nearly 10%, while the main US contract WTI, fell more than 8% to finish under US$100 per barrel for the first time in around two months.
“There are increasing worries the elevated energy prices will chip away at demand, hence the fall in the oil contracts,” said Madden.
Sentiment in Europe was shaken by the latest survey data showing economic growth in the eurozone floundered in June.
S&P Global’s closely watched monthly purchasing managers’ index, which measures corporate confidence, fell to 52.0 in June from 54.8 in May.
Nevertheless, the reading, which was a 16-month low, remains above the 50-point level signalling expansion.
“Growing fears of a recession are hammering the euro lower, whilst the dollar is soaring on bets that the Fed will keep hiking rates aggressively to tame inflation,” City Index analyst Fiona Cincotta said.
“Today’s PMI data from Europe have highlighted the risk of slowing growth at the end of the second quarter and raise the prospect of a contraction in activity in the coming months.”
Walid Koudmani, chief market analyst at XTB, said “the ECB is caught between a rock and a hard place as it needs to raise interest rates to tackle inflation and boost its currency while simultaneously supporting struggling economies which are just recovering after two years of pandemic related issues.”
While US stocks spent the morning deep in the red, equities rallied in the afternoon, enabling two of the three major indices to finish higher.
The shift came as the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, a proxy for interest rates, fell further below 3%.
“The concern of a recession is deepening,” said Quincy Krosby of LPL Financial, who noted the correlation between tech shares and drops in Treasury bond yields.
“You look for growth, where you can find it,” Krosby said. “Many of those large tech names that have been beaten up by the market become attractive again, particularly when the bond yields are lower.” – AFP, July 6, 2022
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