I AM very distressed by this most recent expose of the lacklustre reception of our warga emas towards the Covid vaccines.
It was a painful reminder of the two weeks of agony we lived through when our only surviving 90-year-old uncle and 14 of our immediate cousins and their family members were admitted to Sungai Buloh Hospital for management of their Covid illness.
Three of them including my uncle were Category III Covid disease requiring oxygen therapy and close monitoring in the High Dependency Unit (HDU).
We were very grateful to God that there were discharged unscathed, though one of them is now faced with the terrible consequences of long Covid, with excruciating joint pains that are restricting her mobility.
I would not wish this experience even for my worst enemies. For many of these naysayers, one day in the Covid wards or ICU would surely turn them over immediately.
Since this is not possible, I can only hope that I can illustrate the extremely high risk of the warga emas for severe Covid disease and deaths would make them reconsider their decisions.
All countries without exception, earmarked those above 65 years, those living in a long-term home care setting and those living with co-morbidities as being at very high risk for Covid morbidities and mortalities and therefore are priority after the front-liners for the Covid vaccines.
The following data from Dr Suresh Kumar, Consultant Infectious Disease Physician, at Sungai Buloh Hospital, shows that:
a. Persons between 51-70 years old are 26x more likely to deteriorate with Covid unlike 12 to 30-year-olds;
b. Persons above 70 years old are 94x at risk of getting worsening Covid illness.
If one has a co-morbidity, eg diabetes, heart disease, chronic kidney disease:
a. Your risk of worsening Covid illness is six times higher if you are below 50 years old;
b. If you are both above 50 years old and living with a co-morbidity your risk is 16 times higher.
85% of the Covid deaths occurred in persons more than 50 years old.
More than half of the deaths occurred (52%) in persons above 60 years old.
The table below compares the risk of death according to the different age groups.
a. The risk of Covid death increases exponentially with age;
b. Compared to a person less than 20 years old, the Covid death risk of a 60-69-year-old is 70 times higher, a 70-79-year-old is 183 times higher;
c. That my 90-year-old uncle survived Covid is truly a miracle, Allah blesses him. I think his active early life put him in good stead to withstand the stress of Covid disease. He was the school champion in three sports namely, athletics, football and rugby for three consecutive years. In athletics, he was tops in the 100 and 200 yards sprints, high jumper, long jumper and 120 yards hurdles.
He reminded me of our celebrated Malaysian decathlon champion, another Georgian, JV Jayan. In football, he was dubbed the “Jimmy Greaves” of English soccer. And in rugby, he played against the legendary All Blacks team. He earned the esteemed accolade of Victor Ludorum from 1948-1950. Apart from his tenacity and prowess, I am sure he was inspired by the King George V School motto of “Veni, Vidi, Vici”, classical Latin which means “I Came, I Saw, I Conquered”.
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Because of the increased risk of severe Covid and deaths, it is the MOH policy to admit:
a. All persons aged 50-70 years old to a nearby hospital for close monitoring;
b. All 50-70-year-olds with co-morbidity to a Covid hospital;
c. All above 70 years old with Covid to a Covid hospital.
The data below is from the US. It demonstrates the risk of hospitalisation (severe Covid) and death per 100,000 persons of the different age groups.
a. Compared to the 20-29-year-olds, the risk of hospitalisation of a 60-69-year-old is 12 times higher, 17 times higher in 70-79-year-olds and 18 times higher in those above 80 years old;
b. The risk of death compared to the 20-29-year-old cohort, is 64 times, 143 times and 260 times in the 60-69, 70-79, and above 80 years old age groups.
Since fear of the Adverse Effects Following Immunisations (AEFI) is the main reason for the refusal of the Covid vaccine, I have contrasted the risk of getting severe Covid (hospitalised) and Covid death with the risk of getting the most severe form of AEFI, which is anaphylaxis from the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine
The risk of anaphylaxis from the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine is 5 per 1 million, that is, 0.5 per 100,000 to allow better comparison.
At the end of the day, we all make decisions in life that may impact our wellbeing and longevity. Even the mundane task of breakfast runs the very small risk of death, 1 in 2,696, due to choking on our food. Life goes on and we still eat our breakfast.
The golfers and footballers, in particular, continue to kick the ball and sink the putt even in the rain despite the risk of being struck to death by lightning, a risk of 1 in 161,856.
Similarly, the AEFI, the worst form being anaphylaxis to the mRNA vaccine is at a much, much lower risk at 1 in 400,000.
Yet we exaggerate the risk in comparison to the higher risk associated with death from choking and from being struck by lightning.
The risk of an American dying from Covid is 512 times higher than from an anaphylaxis AEFI from the Moderna mRNA vaccine.
Similarly, you are 12,000 times more likely to develop an allergy to peanuts than you are to develop anaphylaxis from the Moderna mRNA vaccine.
Yet, we do not stop eating peanuts but are hesitant about taking the mRNA vaccines!
I hope these extremely higher risk of severe Covid and Covid deaths in the elderly, when compared to the extremely rare AEFI of anaphylaxis with the Pfizer mRNA vaccine, will convince our uncles and aunties and grandparents to sign up for the Covid vaccines immediately.
And the higher risk of death incurred during normal daily activities when compared to the rare anaphylaxis AEFI of mRNA vaccines will convince our warga emas to take the Covid vaccines.
The other AEFI of Covid vaccines are mild and not serious, and most of these will disappear after one to two days.
This has been testified by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency in the UK (MHRA).
The UK’s medicines regulator has described the first safety data related to Covid-19 vaccines as “reassuring,” with most side effects reported being mild and in line with those seen with other types of vaccine. “The benefits continue to far outweigh the risks,” said June Raine, chief executive of the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency.
Please do not allow the fear-mongers, fake-news peddlers, conspiracy theorists and anti-vaxxers on social media to emotionally blackmail you into rejecting the Covid vaccines.
To all our senior citizens, I plead with you to register with the MySejahtera app or the similar to ensure that you are at the front of the line to receive the Covid vaccines to prevent you from ever getting Covid, or from suffering from severe Covid, or from dying from Covid and as survivors of the pandemic, you are spared of the debilitating consequences of long Covid. – The Vibes, March 22, 2021
Datuk Dr Musa Mohd Nordin is a consultant paediatrician and neonatologist at the KPJ Damansara Specialist Hospital
