KOTA KINABALU – Despite earlier assessments of Barisan Nasional (BN) having a slight edge over the competition in the Sabah state election, latest figures of 50 seats show that the coalition is in fact trailing.
Perikatan Nasional's (PN) own war room numbers, revealed to The Vibes show Warisan is in the lead with 37 seats, and PKR and DAP both confident of four seats each.
BN meanwhile looks assured of one or two seats in the west coast, with the rest made up of PAN and PCS. He revealed this without mentioning the constituencies.
"PN has failed in using government machinery," said a source.
With PN ministers not visible, a senior state director in charge of poverty eradication has been removed as he was not helping PN candidates, said the insider.
"Election machinery, such as cybertroopers, has also not been effectively galvanised due to miscommunication and funds," he said, adding that as with earlier elections several of those who were not picked as candidates have begun to sabotage the standing candidate.
The latest development comes several days after the Society Empowerment and Economic Development of Sabah gave its assessment that BN had a slight edge in the polls.
The non-government think-tank said its survey shows voters are leaning towards BN and its allies, and without an apparent winner the state may face a hung assembly – similar to what happened after the 2018 general election.
“There are no clear winners at this point. But our concern is that we might revert to what happened in the 2018 general election – a hung assembly and a chief ministerial crisis,” SEEDS chairman Arnold Puyok had told The Vibes here.
The study, titled Key Realities on the Ground in the Sabah Election, polled more than 2,000 respondents in all 25 parliamentary constituencies in the state.
Some 25 political parties are expected to field their candidates in the state election that was called following a sudden dissolution of the Sabah assembly on July 30.
The parties include Sabah Bersatu, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (Sabah Star), Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP), Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Umno, MCA, Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS), Parti Cinta Sabah (PCS), PAS, PKR, DAP, Amanah, Warisan and United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (Upko).
Rise of a 3rd force
Puyok said there is a high possibility Sabah could see the rise of a third force in the event of a hung assembly – as PCS led by former foreign affairs minister Datuk Seri Anifah Aman and Sabah Star led by Deputy Tourism, Arts and Culture Minister Datuk Jeffrey Kitingan are gaining traction once again.
“They (Anifah and Jeffrey) will play decisive kingmakers. In the event two major parties could not form a government, they will tip the balance. This is based on our research.”
Around 1.1 million Sabahans are expected to cast their votes to determine a new state government on September 26. Campaigning has started since September 12.
Parochial sentiments and new norms
Puyok said the “Sabah for Sabahan” call will be a salient factor that can work in areas with a Kadazan Dusun Murut majority.
He also denied the widespread notion that young voters will have a significant impact in influencing the election results.
He said voter support will not be based on age as senior candidates also stand a chance to win seats.
“The pandemic will barely impact voter turnout as there had been a number of by-elections held in Peninsular Malaysia amid the Covid-19 outbreak.
“We do not expect the pandemic to affect voter turnout. Many are already going out as normal while observing the SOP.”
SEEDS has listed issues such as undocumented migrants, the Malaysia Agreement 1963, state rights, government cash aid, party hoppers, the change of federal government and party manifestos to influence voters.
After the 2018 general election, Sabah ended with a hung assembly with Warisan-Pakatan Harapan (PH) and BN each having 29 seats, leaving Sabah Star, which had two state seats, as the “kingmaker”.
However, the BN government led by Tan Sri Musa Aman only survived a day after five Upko reps left to align themselves with Warisan-PH to form the state government.
Musa had challenged the appointment of Warisan president Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal in court and the case is ongoing at the federal level.
He had also questioned the legitimacy of Shafie’s call for the dissolution of the state assembly. – The Vibes, September 19, 2020
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