IN the complex and often perilous arena of global trade and diplomacy, few regions are as persistently misread as Southeast Asia.
As the United States, particularly under the administration of former President Donald Trump, intensified its transactional approach—marked by erratic tariff impositions and performative brinkmanship—ASEAN once again found itself swept into the turbulent orbit of great power politics.
Yet ASEAN is no longer a passive observer, far from a mere pawn.
International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) Professor of ASEAN Studies Dr Phar Kim Beng said for China, ASEAN is more than just a neighbour—it is a strategic partner, a geopolitical buffer, and increasingly, a source of regional stability amid the volatility of global trade wars.
With its appetite for economic connectivity, regional political stability, and secured passageways for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China regards ASEAN as a linchpin in its southern calculus.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, whose approach to the US-China rivalry is neither one of alignment nor antagonism, seeks to recalibrate the rules of engagement through what might be described as a quiet tax diplomacy.
Beijing’s Southern Corridor: ASEAN’s Role in China’s Grand Strategy
From Beijing’s vantage point, ASEAN functions as a southern corridor of stability. It ensures the security of critical maritime routes such as the Strait of Malacca, and provides access to an expanding middle-class market.
With a combined GDP approaching USD4 trillion and demographic advantages comparable to India in some areas, ASEAN represents an economic buffer against Western pressures.
The region also affords China institutional legitimacy. Platforms such as ASEAN+3, the East Asia Summit, and the ASEAN Regional Forum allow Beijing to engage not only bilaterally but within multilateral frameworks—arenas where the United States is increasingly perceived as unpredictable under its America-first doctrines.
Beijing may recognise ASEAN’s internal limitations —as being fragmented, deliberative, and averse to open conflict, said Dr Phar.
Yet these very characteristics align well with China’s long-term strategic preferences.
In the lexicon of classical Chinese statecraft, ASEAN is *he xie* (和谐)—a zone of harmony where contradictions are not resolved but managed, he said.
Trump’s Tariff Theatre and the Asian Ripple Effect
U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term carried forward his hard-line rhetoric, with even greater intensity.
Tariffs were levied not only on Chinese semiconductors, but also on ASEAN-manufactured electronics, Vietnamese steel, and Malaysian solar panels.
These were not simply protectionist measures; they were instruments of perceptual coercion—designed to project strength while concealing internal economic vulnerabilities.
The immediate consequences were predictable: supply chains were disrupted, inflationary pressures were exported, and ASEAN economies—many reliant on export-led growth—scrambled to adapt.
“But the world in 2025 is no longer as reactive as it was in 2018. Strategies have evolved. China has pivoted southward, deepening trade through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), expanding the Digital Silk Road, and enhancing cooperation with ASEAN across energy, infrastructure, and digital governance, Dr Phar added.
It is here that Malaysia, under Anwar’s leadership, emerges as a key regional actor.
Unlike his predecessors, Anwar seems to grasp the psychological theatre underpinning tariff conflicts.
Dr Phar opined, Anwar does not interpret Trump-era tariffs purely as protectionism, but as performative displays aimed at concealing America’s structural economic challenges.
“As a result, Anwar’s response has been one of strategic subtlety—anchored in economic diversification, principled neutrality, and intellectual leadership within ASEAN.”
Rather than publicly decrying US tariffs, Anwar has called for a “Global Tax Dialogue” at platforms such as the East Asia Summit—an attempt to establish new norms on fair taxation and reciprocal trade.
He treats tariffs as a starting point for negotiation, not a pretext for capitulation.
Malaysia, under his leadership, is restructuring its economic posture—from being a mere assembly hub for Western multinationals to becoming a pivotal node in Asia’s value chain. China has welcomed this shift.
In recent months, Chinese firms in digital technology, green energy, and logistics have expanded investments in Malaysia, viewing it as a more stable alternative to Vietnam.
Yet crucially, Anwar has not shut the door on the United States. He remains open to American investment in Malaysia’s semiconductor and AI sectors—albeit with one condition: such investment must be long-term and non-exploitative.
ASEAN’s Silent Strength: Influence Beyond Arms and Alliances
ASEAN’s real power lies not in military might or economic scale, but in its ability to absorb pressure and postpone binary choices. While alliances like NATO demand allegiance and pacts like AUKUS raise alarm, ASEAN offers breathing room.
For China, ASEAN is the last major Asian region still receptive to inclusive multilateralism. For the United States, it remains one of the final outposts where its soft power retains some measure of effectiveness. Anwar understands this dualism—and leverages it as a diplomatic fulcrum.
If the 2020s are defined by tariff wars, data sovereignty, and fractured supply chains, then the role of mediators—those fluent in the idioms of both East and West—will become indispensable.
“Anwar is not merely the Prime Minister of Malaysia. In many ways, he has become ASEAN’s chief interpreter in an age of economic confrontation,” Dr Phar said.
A Silk Road Built on Norms?
Can ASEAN build a new Silk Road rooted in fairness, moderation, and equilibrium? The answer may hinge not only on China’s ambition or America’s assertiveness, but on leaders like Anwar Ibrahim—those capable of transforming tools of economic coercion into instruments of global dialogue.
In this light, ASEAN is not only central to China’s strategy. It may be the only platform capable of humanising China’s rise—while gently cushioning America’s decline.
And at the heart of this delicate geopolitical balancing act lies a region often underestimated, but never irrelevant. - April 16, 2025
