A CLOSER working relationship between Umno and PAS could strengthen the Malay political bloc ahead of the next general election, but analysts say the two parties may still need support from elsewhere to secure Putrajaya.
Political analyst Dr James Chin said Umno appeared to believe it would remain the senior partner in any cooperation with PAS, regardless of how many seats the Islamist party wins.
PAS, he said, understands that it would struggle to put forward its own candidate for prime minister without sufficient support in the Dewan Rakyat.
“Umno, by contrast, could potentially command enough parliamentary backing to determine who takes the top post if it enters into an arrangement with PAS,” Chin explained.
He believes PAS’ immediate priority is therefore unlikely to be the prime minister’s post.
Instead, the party could seek influential positions in a future federal administration, including the deputy prime minister’s post, religious affairs and education.
The Tasmania University academic sees this as part of a longer-term PAS strategy to expand its grip on federal politics, with cooperation with Umno serving as a route back into government rather than the end goal.
For Umno, the calculation is different.
Chin said opposition to Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and DAP could push the party towards PAS, with some in Umno believing they could retain political control and manage the Islamist party within a coalition.
PAS, meanwhile, sees Umno as its most practical route into federal government.
But Dr Azmi Hassan of Nusantara Academy believes the numbers could ultimately matter more than either party’s ambitions.
PAS currently has 43 MPs, based on the outcome of the 15th General Election, and Azmi said a PN-BN alliance could potentially emerge as the largest bloc in the next Parliament.
“Being the largest bloc, however, would not necessarily mean being able to form the government.”
“A simple majority in the 222-member Dewan Rakyat requires 112 seats. A combined PN-BN bloc could therefore still need another coalition or group of MPs to cross the line,” he told The Vibes.
That could once again put Sabah and Sarawak parties in a powerful position.
Azmi assesses that the strength of PN and BN remains largely rooted in Malay support, but Malay votes alone are insufficient to secure federal power.
The parties from Sabah and Sarawak could consequently have the decisive say in determining who is able to assemble a governing majority — and potentially who becomes prime minister.
There is another uncertainty for PAS.
Azmi cautioned against treating its GE15 performance as a reliable forecast for the next election, saying the political landscape has changed significantly over the past three to four years.
PAS may have emerged from GE15 with 43 seats, but replicating that performance is not guaranteed.
Chin also sees a limit to the party’s appeal, arguing that resistance to PAS extends beyond non-Malay voters, with a significant section of Malay voters also viewing the party as too extreme.
That could prove important if PAS attempts to turn its strength in Malay-majority areas into a broader parliamentary majority.
The contrasting assessments point to a more complicated contest than simply whether Umno or PAS emerges as the dominant Malay political force.
Umno may believe it can use cooperation to regain power while remaining in control. PAS may see the same arrangement as an opportunity to strengthen its position and build towards a longer-term objective.
But neither calculation settles the most important question: whether they can secure enough seats to govern.
If they cannot, the decisive negotiations may take place not between Umno and PAS, but with the parties holding the seats needed to take either bloc past the 112-seat threshold.
And that could leave Sabah and Sarawak once again holding the balance of power in the race for Putrajaya. – September 12, 2026
