KUALA LUMPUR – The heated battle between Ummo and Bersatu has intensified with Machang MP Datuk Ahmad Jazlan Yaakub’s decision to withdraw his support for Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s Perikatan Nasional (PN) administration.
The federal lawmaker is the second Umno MP to openly abandon his support for the Bersatu president which leaves Muhyiddin in an extremely precarious position where PN is on the verge of collapse in the Dewan Rakyat with only 110 majority seats against the opposition’s 108 MPs.Padang Rengas MP and former Cabinet Minister Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz had already indicated that more Umno MPs are expected to withdraw their support.
The first Umno leader to publicly show his displeasure against Muhyiddin was Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah who abstained from backing the government’s Budget 2021 during the committee-level voting which took place on December 15.
Back then, the budget which was tabled by Finance Minister Tengku Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz barely passed the voting stage with a 111 majority against Pakatan Harapan (PH) Plus’ 108.
The latest salvo fired against the besieged premier comes on the back of the Umno supreme council meeting on Wednesday night where the party had openly declared that it will not be cooperating with Bersatu in the 15th General Election.
In retaliation, Bersatu had also held a tit-for-tat meeting that same night and issued a statement responding to Umno’s declaration where they will strengthen their cooperation with other Perikatan Nasional (PN) parties – Star, PAS and SUPP, minus Umno.
At the same time, Jazlan’s actions did not come out of nowhere. The Kelantan Umno chief had already tendered his resignation as Malaysia Palm Oil Board chairman on January 6 to place pressure on Muhyiddin to dissolve Parliament.
Umno grassroots wants break from Bersatu
Singapore’s Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun told The Vibes that Ahmad Jazlan’s stunt lends credence to the speculation and rumours that Umno grassroots members and leaders are even more gung-ho than their mainstream leaders when it comes to ditching Bersatu.
“If more of these Umno MPs take things into their own hands and withdraw support even before their central leadership definitively declares so, then, it would of course force the hand of the mainstream leaders to expeditiously split with Bersatu,” he said.
“But Muhyiddin would be going for broke if he calls for elections, both because of the pandemic and also the fact that his party has scarcely any grassroots support or electoral machinery.
“Urban voters could conceivably be reasonably angry with Umno over such stunts, but rural voters would still solidly support Umno,” said Oh.
Where will Machang sit in Dewan Rakyat?
On the other hand, Universiti Utara Malaysia associate professor Mohd Azizudin Sani questioned the Machang lawmaker’s announcement to withdraw support, pointing out that Jazlan needs to clarify his position further.
The academic said that there is not a lot that a single lawmaker who pulls out like him can do, despite the fact that it only takes three government backbenchers to call in sick during the voting of any bill to scuttle it.
“If he wants to withdraw his support, which bench will he be seated on in the Dewan Rakyat?” Mohd Azizudin asked.
“Will he sit with the independents, the opposition or with his party members? If you say you are withdrawing your support but you still sit with the government backbenchers, that’s not a withdrawal.
“The problem is Umno’s support is not clear. They said that they want to withdraw but nothing is clear,” he said.
The numbers behind Umno
However, as Malaysia’s largest Malay-based party, Umno is highly confident that it can wipe Bersatu out and win more seats in the event of an election – especially since Bersatu is still considered to be a rookie party without much grassroot-level support.
Barisan Nasional (BN), which is the coalition led by Umno currently commands 41 seats in the Dewan Rakyat where 37 of those seats belong to Umno MPs.
Meanwhile, Bersatu has 31 MPs but many of those MPs were Umno defectors who jumped ship when the PH administration still held Putrajaya. Its numbers were also beefed up when former PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Azmin Ali brought 10 of his supporters on board.
Originally, without the political frogs Bersatu had won only 13 seats in the 14th general election in 2018.
Will PM's MCO address delay Umno AGM?
Muhyiddin is now under assault from multiple fronts. However, it seems that the prime minister is not going down without a fight.
Speculation in the political rumour mill is rife that the announcement that he is expected to make regarding Covid-19’s spike on Monday is to re-implement the full movement control order (MCO) lockdown in a few states.
This move would successfully delay Umno’s annual general meeting set on January 31, where the party is expected to make the final decision on pulling out of Muhyiddin’s government and forcing him to step down or request for the dissolution of Parliament.
Political pundits had already earlier observed that the passing of his Budget 2021 had merely delayed the inevitable attacks from his erstwhile partners of convenience as well as the opposition.
However, this would give impetus to Umno to step up attacks on Muhyiddin as a prime minister who has been too afraid to open himself up to a confidence motion in Parliament; and now uses the pandemic to stay in power via a lockdown.
Agong’s wisdom once again needed
The Budget had a lifeline thrown to it due to the wisdom of Yang diPertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri'ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah who advised federal lawmakers to support the budget.
At the same time, the King had also told Muhyiddin’s administration to be more inclusive when drafting the supply bill. In the end, all of Umno’s major demands for the Budget were met by Tengku Zafrul.
Even Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as the opposition leader did not scuttle the budget as the approval of funds is gravely needed for frontliners to battle the pandemic as well as to facilitate economic recovery.
Unfortunately, it looks like His Majesty’s wisdom is required once more to prevent a health disaster if Umno manages to bring about an election at a time when the Covid-19 pandemic is spiking in the country.
Have the political leaders not learned the lesson from the Sabah state election which saw the country nearly defeating the virus but is now being plagued by the third wave with barely any reprieve in sight?
One way out to stop the politicking is perhaps for Sultan Abdullah to once again exercise his constitutional right to summon each and every MP for a personal one-on-one meeting to find out who they support and who commands the majority in Parliament.
It does not matter if it's Muhyiddin, Anwar or an untainted leader from Umno. Clarity could present itself through face-to-face meetings.
Otherwise it is time for the prime minister to stop putting the royal institution in awkward position and man up – invoke Standing Order 4 of the Parliament Act to seek an emergency sitting of the Dewan Rakyat, where he can finally learn for himself if he has the majority support. – January 9, 2020
