KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysia will not be spared from the global geopolitical, security and economic impact of growing tension between Russia and Ukraine should it escalate into a war.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Prof Madya Dr Azmi Hassan said while the crisis is taking place in Eastern Europe, the impact of the turmoil will affect relations among countries, particularly with the involvement of the United States.
He said this could lead to a proxy war, with the US set to retaliate if its ally, Ukraine, is under attack.
“If this happens, certainly international geopolitic will be at risk, especially at a time when the US is focusing its attention on the Indo-Pacific region, which is also being eyed by China,” he told The Vibes’ Malay language sister portal Getaran.
“China will definitely be monitoring this unrest, and should a war happen, the republic will surely seize this opportunity to put a foothold in the Indo-Pacific.”
Russia and Ukraine are on the brink of a full-blown war, with the latter having already placed 100,000 troops on its borders of the two countries, generating concern over potential invasion.
Tensions between the two nations have been simmering since the Russian annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, despite global diplomatic efforts.
According to Azmi, due to the crisis, Malaysia is bound to face security issues similar to the impact of geopolitical instability.
“The thing most feared is the unexpected actions from certain quarters who want to take advantage of the situation in Russia and Ukraine.”
On the same note, he said Malaysia's economy will also take a hit, especially considering the Covid-19 pandemic is already affecting global supply chains.
As a member of the United Nations (UN), Azmi said Malaysia is not expected to get directly involved in the heightened crisis, adding that the country could only rely on the UN to intervene.
He added that the possible war could only come to an end if Russia and the US, which is seen as Ukraine’s main proxy, can come to a compromise.
“Ukraine has said itself that it is willing to compromise by making a recommendation not to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato), which is believed to be the cause of this tension,” he said.
The Russian government fears Ukraine’s membership of the European Union and Nato would complete a western wall of allied countries by restricting Moscow’s access to the Black Sea.
Azmi said the tough stance taken by the US and Russia are making efforts to resolve the conflict almost impossible.
Several countries globally have already urged their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately to avoid the war, while the number of foreign diplomatic staff there has also been reduced.
Meanwhile, Wisma Putra has urged Malaysians who are currently in Ukraine to immediately contact the embassy to report on their situations. – The Vibes, February 15, 2022
