KUALA LUMPUR – Umno is expected to face a deficit in voter support if the next general election (GE15) is pushed back to a later time, said observers.
Their assessments of the Barisan Nasional (BN) lynchpin party come as its leadership mounts pressure on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob to call for a snap election.
Awang Azman Awang Pawi, a sociopolitical analyst at Universiti Malaya, said Umno had ceased to take advantage of Employees Provident Fund (EPF) withdrawals, which was perhaps the most opportune moment for the party to be contesting in GE15.
The academic said the withdrawals were the most “appropriate” time for Umno to be running in the polls if it had wanted to gain strong support from the people, especially from the B40 group, which is affected by the current economic situation.
“The approval for the EPF withdrawal was a feel-good factor for Umno to hold GE15 but it did not jump on the opportunity,” he told The Vibes’ Bahasa Malaysia sister portal Getaran.
“When the EPF withdrawals were approved, the B40 and M40 (groups) had given positive responses to the government, but it (dissolution of Parliament) was not announced.”
However, he said there were several reasons that prevented the election from being held sooner, including the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the federal government and the opposition for political stability.
The MoU is tipped to expire at the end of July this year.
The lecturer predicts a possibility where Ismail Sabri would announce the dissolution of Parliament as soon as the agreement ends or after the tabling of Budget 2023.
“Based on this context, there are two phases in which the government can dissolve Parliament, that is between June until September, or September until December.”
Azman also said the economic uncertainties in the country are due to several factors, including the post-Covid-19 recovery phase, the war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the current geopolitical shifts.
He said Malaysia’s change towards a more stable government would allow the shaping of new policies to mitigate economic and inflation challenges faced by the country.
“For example, if the government does not want to hold GE15 due to economic uncertainties, would the economy improve next year? What if the situation worsens?
“The stability of the domestic and global economy is difficult to predict if it is used as an indicator to hold GE15.”
Umno torn between two leaders on GE15?
Meanwhile, Universiti Malaya’s Administrative and Political Studies Department senior director, Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said Umno will have the upper hand if GE15 is held soon, based on its performance at the recent polls in Melaka and Johor.
However, Tawfik noted there were two “camps” within the Umno fold, which comprise supporters of Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and those in Putrajaya who are backing Ismail Sabri – both of which could affect voter sentiments.
“The GE15 group (behind Zahid) wants GE15 to be held soon, but Putrajaya appears to be stalling it,” he said.
“I do not see the Putrajaya group being able to avoid holding GE15 forever, as their term will end next July.
Therefore, Umno must take the initiative to sit down and talk about GE15 as internal conflicts could affect it, but not in a major way.”
However, Tawfik said he would not be surprised if the conflict between the two camps would lead to several Umno leaders “changing direction”, similar to past experiences.
The pundit foresees party leaders shifting their allegiances or a straight-up contest for its presidency.
Asked whether the date of the polls was crucial given the economic situation, Tawfik said only a stable government can stabilise the nation’s economy.
He stressed that GE15 is a mechanism to stabilise the country’s political landscape and provide a positive economic effect simultaneously.
Tawfik added that GE15 should not be called in haste, but should not be postponed for too long as well.
“What’s happening is that the government itself is not ready to hold GE15, and the people are depending on the government to stabilise the economy and so on,” he said.
“If the economic situation persists, investors will leave (the country), and it will have adverse ramifications for the country, as the problem is not faced by Malaysia alone, but is of a global nature.” – The Vibes, June 20, 2022
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