KUALA LUMPUR – After two years of political vacillation and a financial decline exacerbated by the global Covid-19 pandemic, Malaysia may soon see a new administration taking over Putrajaya.
This has been fueled by rumours that the 15th general election (GE15) will be called soon as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob has brought forward the tabling of Budget 2023 from October 28 to October 7.
There are now anxious murmurs that Ismail Sabri will likely dissolve Parliament a few days after tabling the budget, mirroring the move done by former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad in 1999.
This has sparked questions about whether complications could arise if the budget, which includes operational expenditures such as salaries and procurement of government apparatus, fails to be passed in the current term of Parliament and if there is a snag in the outcome of the national polls.
Speaking to The Vibes, parliamentary observer Ong Ooi Heng said one of the probable scenarios would indeed be that Parliament is dissolved mere days after the budget is tabled.
This could help Ismail Sabri to plan out in detail his administration’s fiscal policy for the coming year and leverage on the budget’s purported socio-economic benefits during the election campaign period.
“It is very likely that by doing so, he can use the details of the budget during the campaign period (by) positioning the notion ‘if you want this budget passed, vote for me’,” Ong said.
He added that this would be the most probable outcome if Ismail Sabri finds it untenable to delay GE15 to 2023, when Parliament is due to be dissolved by law.
Pressure and dynamics in Umno
This situation however is highly dependent on Ismail Sabri’s current dynamics within his own party Umno.
Certain leaders and their supporters have been clamouring for the national polls to take place this year, following a series of victories in state elections and by-elections for the party’s Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition.
To make matters worse, the imprisonment of former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, also a former Umno president, has further emboldened certain quarters in the party to pressure Ismail Sabri to call an early GE15.
“All these come into play and depend on the dynamics between Ismail Sabri and (current) Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, and their respective camps,” said Ong.
“Ismail Sabri would be deemed successful in staving off political pressure if Parliament is not dissolved immediately after the budget is tabled,” he said, referring to the heavy demands for an early election.
If that is the case, Ong predicted, Parliament would then be dissolved by December to avoid the possibility of north-east monsoon floods in the peninsula’s east coast states hampering voters there.
An election would then likely be held in early January to coincide with the school holidays (the school term next year begins in March).
In the event that another political entity emerges triumphant in GE15 and assumes the majority in Parliament, the new government it forms can then present its own budget and try to pass it through the Dewan Rakyat and Dewan Negara before 2023.
However, this would be smooth sailing only if that political pact enjoys a two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat.
Breaking constitutional convention
In this context, it is interesting to look back at the period leading up to the general election in 1999.
Dr Mahathir’s BN government had tabled the federal budget on October 29 – and then dissolved Parliament and announced polling on November 29 of that year.
Under immense political pressure and faced with a split Malay electorate following the sacking of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim from the government and ruling party Umno, Dr Mahathir had called for a quick election, with the campaign period lasting only nine days.
Upon securing victory with a two-thirds majority, the BN government’s then finance minister, Tun Abdul Daim Zainuddin, then re-tabled the federal budget for the year 2000 on December 20, 1999.
Weighing up the possible scenarios, Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun said Ismail Sabri would be breaking constitutional convention if he announces a budget without passing it.
This is because a new government not headed by Ismail Sabri will likely present its own budget.
“If he (Ismail Sabri) does propose a budget before dissolution then he should see it through before dissolving Parliament,” he said.
Oh stressed that if GE15 is not scheduled this year, then the government led by Ismail Sabri may as well serve a full term until next year.
The current parliamentary term is slated to last until July 15, 2023.
Kit Siang recalls dissolution in 1999
Meanwhile, former DAP chairman Lim Kit Siang said that although there is nothing to stop Ismail Sabri from advising the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve Parliament after the tabling of the Budget 2023, it would be wrong and a bad example of the prime minister misusing his powers.
He said the king should then advise Ismail Sabri to let Parliament debate and pass the budget unless a no-confidence motion against the prime minister is adopted by Dewan Rakyat.
Speaking at the Subang Jaya East DAP dialogue with party members and supporters last night, Lim, who is presently Iskandar Puteri MP, said he remembers the way Parliament was dissolved on November 10, 1999, mid-stream while the debate on Budget 2000 was going on.
He recalled the budget then having already been tabled on October 29 that year.
“It was a Tuesday and the sixth day of the debate on Budget 2000, but MPs were not interested in Budget 2000 as word had got around that Parliament was to be dissolved that day,” he said in his speech, the text of which was made available this morning.
“I remember asking the deputy speaker who was presiding before the Dewan Rakyat adjourned for lunch on 10th November 1999 whether Parliament would be dissolved that day, and the deputy speaker who is now the Yang di-Pertua Negeri of Sabah said he did not know.
“When the Dewan Rakyat resumed after lunch at 2.30pm, the speaker announced that he had been informed that Parliament had been dissolved by the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, and the debate on Budget 2000 ended abruptly for the holding of the 10th general election in Malaysia,” recalled Lim, who was at that time the MP for Tanjong.
“But this is a wrong and bad example where the budget was presented to Parliament and Parliament was not allowed to debate and pass the budget, but was dissolved for the holding of the general election,” he stressed.
“It should not be followed by Ismail Sabri.” – The Vibes, September 9, 2022
