KUALA LUMPUR – The 15th general election (GE15) will result in a hung Parliament with no single coalition securing the required 112 out of 222 seats to form a government by itself, a survey has found.
As such, pollster Endeavour-MGC Research Centre said that based on the current situation, Barisan Nasional (BN), Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), as well as Perikatan Nasional (PN) are likely to cooperate with each other, rather than with Pakatan Harapan (PH).
“If this happens, this trio will very likely surpass the 112 threshold required, and form the next government of Malaysia,” it said in a report.
Endeavour-MGC said its survey, which polled 1,068 voters from all parliamentary constituencies in the peninsula, was carried out between November 7 and yesterday.
In concluding that no single coalition would win a simple majority, Endeavour-MGC said it used its survey findings on respondents who said they would definitely come out to vote and who stated their coalition of choice. From this, the share of each coalition’s popular vote was derived and translated into the share of parliamentary seats projected to be won by each through the application of historical data.
Based on those findings, PH was projected to win between 55 and 70 seats from Peninsular Malaysia’s total of 165 parliamentary constituencies.
The pollster also predicted BN would secure between 52 and 65 seats, while PN would likely garner between 30 and 58.
It then assumed that if GPS wins 27 out of 31 parliamentary seats in Sarawak – while in Sabah PN-leaning Gabungan Rakyat Sabah wins 12, and BN and PH win 6 and 2 respectively, leaving Warisan with the remaining seats – “no single formal coalition (will secure) 112 seats”.
“Where exactly the final seat tally falls for each formalised political coalition will depend on individual high-profile candidates battling in certain seats,” the pollster added.
“These contests would buck national voter preference trends and change seats from safe to marginal, e.g. Tambun, Bagan Datuk, Sg Buloh, Muar, Langkawi etc.”
Respondents also had their own predictions, however, with 36% saying they felt BN would lead the new government post-GE15, while 30% felt PH would emerge to lead the new administration.
A slightly smaller 26% felt that PN would win GE15, Endeavour-MGC added.
On data about the popular vote share and share of parliamentary seats, the pollster noted that for Peninsular Malaysia alone in the 2018 general election, PH – which then included Bersatu – won 49% of the popular vote and 98 seats, while BN won only 32% to secure 49 seats. There was no PN coalition at the time.
In 2013, the opposition – which was then known as Pakatan Rakyat – won 36% of the popular vote and 59 parliamentary seats, excluding votes won by PAS, while BN won 45% of the popular vote and 86 seats. – The Vibes, November 16, 2022
