JOHOR BARU – Barisan Nasional (BN) may overturn the disastrous results of the 14th general election in Johor and win back the parliamentary seats it lost to Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the historic 2018 polls.
Although BN performed woefully in GE14, which also saw the end of the coalition’s rule over Malaysia for the first time in over six decades, professional observers believe that support for the coalition has resurged to the level it enjoyed prior to 2018.
In a reply to The Vibes, political analyst Azmi Hassan predicted that BN could emerge the biggest winner in Johor, where 26 of the 222 seats in the Dewan Rakyat are being contested.
According to Azmi, BN could win 18 seats in Johor, followed by PH with seven seats. Perikatan Nasional (PN) will bag one seat, with only the coalition’s chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin expected to successfully defend his Pagoh seat in this Saturday’s election.
“BN performed well in last March’s Johor polls, where it formed the state government with a two-thirds majority. I don’t see any major changes in the Johor political landscape and at the national level to believe otherwise,” the senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research said.
Among the notable PH heavyweights that he expects will lose out in GE15 are incumbent Simpang Renggam MP Maszlee Malik of PKR and Amanah deputy president Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub, who is defending his Pulai seat.
“PH is expected to retain the DAP traditional seats, including Bakri and Iskandar Puteri, and also those won by its coalition partner PKR, such as Johor Baru and Tebrau, in the last election.”
Meanwhile, Shazwan Mustafa Kamal, the associate director at Vriens & Partners based in Kuala Lumpur, also believes that PH could find it hard to retain most of the seats it won in Johor.
He said that PH enjoyed dominance in Johor in the last general election while Bersatu was part of the coalition.
Given that Johor is a key state for Bersatu and Umno, there is an incentive for them to try and retain as many seats as possible.
“PH’s win in the general election of 2018 was due to a combined PH and Bersatu. The risk here for GE15 is that Bersatu and PN may dilute PH’s votes for those who do not want to vote BN,” said Shazwan.
He however said that the result of the 2022 Johor polls cannot be used to predict GE15’s results.
“The dynamics impacting the state polls would differ from a general election, ranging from the issues as well as broad-ranging election manifestos.”
Support for BN remains steadfast in Johor
Checks by The Vibes in several parliamentary constituencies in Johor displayed indications that sentiments on the ground remain favourable towards BN.
This is especially evident in Tg Piai and its adjacent constituency of Pontian.
PH won Tg Piai in 2018 and reduced BN’s majority in Pontian to 833 votes. However, its decision to now field greenhorns in Tg Piai and Pontian, in the forms of youth-based Muda’s Lim Wei Jiet and DAP’s Shazwan Zdainal Abidin respectively may backfire.
This takes into consideration that the two will face BN’s popular incumbents – Datuk Seri Wee Jeck Seng of MCA and Datuk Seri Ahmad Maslan of Umno.
One Pontian native that The Vibes spoke to also said that it is unthinkable for him to vote for PH since the coalition fielded a DAP candidate in Pontian for GE15.
However, PH can take solace in the turnout for its mega rally in Johor Baru on Wednesday night, which drew admirable crowds with more than 1,000 supporters attending the four-hour event.
What remains to be seen is how much urban support PH still enjoys in Johor, and if it can retain the majority of the 18 federal seats its components won in Johor in GE14. – The Vibes, November 18, 2022
