POLITICAL analysts are weighing the political ramifications as speculation mounts over whether Umno could withdraw from Malaysia’s unity government, potentially rekindling its erstwhile alliance with PAS under the Muafakat Nasional banner.
While experts stress a full-scale rupture is improbable, the scenario underscores uncertainties facing Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim ahead of the 16th general election.
Political risk consultancy Viewfinder described recent public calls for Umno to exit the government as largely symbolic.
“It is unlikely for Umno to withdraw from the government. The public call to withdraw support for the unity government is largely performative, a display of posturing as the party positions itself ahead of its general assembly in January,” said Adib Zalkapli, managing director of the firm.
The Dewan Rakyat, Malaysia’s lower house of parliament, has 222 seats, with a simple majority requiring 112.
The current Anwar administration commands approximately 153 MPs, including 81 from Pakatan Harapan, 30 from Barisan Nasional (BN) including Umno, 23 from Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), six from Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), and 13 from smaller parties and independents.
Political science researcher Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia said the government could technically survive a withdrawal by Umno and BN.
“If Umno pulls out, my biggest bet is that the East Malaysian bloc would still stay with Madani because there is no immediate reason for them to defect,” she said, highlighting the pivotal role of GPS and GRS.
East Malaysian parties have traditionally prioritised regional autonomy, and Anwar’s commitment to fulfilling the Malaysia Agreement 1963 is likely to encourage their continued support.
“By staying with Anwar they would have more leverage to get more policy items in favour of Sabah and Sarawak… but if Umno leaves and GPS and GRS follow suit, then Anwar’s government would technically fall,” Syaza added.
Analyst and former DAP MP Ong Kian Ming suggested that Umno’s central leadership may be cautious.
“Umno is not likely to pull out from the government as this would mean losing access to federal government positions and resources which are very important to Umno leaders,” he said.
Ong added that a compromise could see Umno formally resigning from government posts while continuing to support Anwar in Parliament to maintain a supermajority until GE16.
An Umno withdrawal could also revive discussions of an alliance with PAS, potentially consolidating Malay political support and challenging Pakatan Harapan in marginal constituencies.
“Umno is more likely to weigh its options to see how it can work with PAS to have an electoral pact in the run-up to GE16 as a way to get back into power,” Ong said, pointing to upcoming state elections in Melaka and Johor as a testing ground.
However, a reduced parliamentary majority would carry strategic risks. While 123 MPs could pass legislation such as the national Budget, the government would fall short of the 148 MPs required to amend the Federal Constitution, leaving it vulnerable to defections and granting small parties or individual MPs disproportionate influence over policy decisions.
Should Umno withdraw, analysts expect Anwar to demonstrate his parliamentary majority through a confidence vote or, alternatively, for the King to determine whether the prime minister retains the “confidence of the majority” via statutory declarations from party leaders. - January 1, 2026
