THE turnout of nearly 1.8 million voters in the Johor state election was driven more by confidence in Barisan Nasional (BN) than dissatisfaction with the incumbent government, political analyst Dr Syaza Shukri said.
The International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) academic said the 69% voter turnout, while higher than in the 2022 state election, should not be interpreted as an anti-incumbent wave.
“By convention, high voter turnout usually means dissatisfaction with the incumbent. However, to be fair, 69% is not considered ‘high’. People feel it is high because we’re comparing it with 2022,” she said.
Instead, Syaza said many BN supporters turned out to vote because they did not want to take any chances despite widespread expectations that the opposition’s fragmented contest would work in BN’s favour.
“I feel that more voters came out to vote for BN because BN supporters did not want to take any chances despite talks about the opposition’s fragmented vote,” she said.
She said the election was ultimately a contest for Malay votes, with many Malay voters mobilising to preserve what they viewed as Malay political leadership.
“I’m not trying to play identity politics, but as I’ve said before, this election was really about getting the Malay votes. If Chinese voters were frustrated and chose not to vote for DAP, then it was up to the Malays to come out in droves,” she said.
Syaza said the results also reflected public confidence in Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s administration and BN’s stewardship of the state.
“The other story which we should acknowledge is people’s trust towards Onn Hafiz and BN to continue ruling Johor. This election confirms BN as the dominant coalition in Johor and an uphill battle for the others,” she said.
BN secured a commanding victory in the election, strengthening its grip on Johor, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) retained its position as the main opposition. Perikatan Nasional (PN), meanwhile, failed to win a single seat despite fielding candidates across much of the state.
Despite PH’s setbacks in several constituencies, Syaza said it would be inaccurate to conclude that the coalition had suffered a major erosion in support.
“It’s not so much that PH is ‘losing’ votes. The 2018 election was really a deviation,” she said, referring to the historic election that saw BN lose control of Johor for the first time.
BN and PH increase in vote share
She said an analysis of the popular vote showed that both BN and PH actually increased their vote share compared with the previous state election, although BN recorded the larger gains.
“The numbers show that both BN and PH actually saw an upswing in the popular vote, but BN gained the most, while PN suffered the biggest decline,” she said.
According to Syaza, the figures suggest that Malay support shifted significantly from PN to BN, reinforcing the view that Bersatu bore the brunt of the coalition’s defeat.
“We know PAS had asked its supporters to vote for Umno, so PN’s low vote is really an indictment on Bersatu,” she said.
“The numbers support what I said earlier. PH didn’t lose-lose. They simply couldn’t catch up with BN’s increase, which was driven by several factors, including the shift in Malay votes from PN to BN.”
She said the outcome further entrenched BN’s position as Johor’s dominant political force, while highlighting the increasingly difficult challenge facing both PH and PN in breaking the coalition’s hold on the state. – July 13, 2026
