IPOH – Defunct opposition pact Pakatan Rakyat’s – now Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) – war chant of the 2008 general election – “Anything But Umno/Asalkan Bukan Umno” – has made an unexpected comeback in the battlefields of the 15th general election.
However, this time, it is not the rallying cry for any coalition, but it seems to be the general sentiment on the ground among voters in northern Peninsular Malaysia and some other parts of the country.
Anger towards Zahid and co
Public anger is not so much directed at Umno as a party, but towards many leaders such as president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and those in his faction who have practically forced this election down people’s throats, after a series of by-elections and state elections.
A large segment of the public is suffering political fatigue and may decide to punish Umno for triggering an early election during the monsoon season, when floods have hit some parts of Malaysia. The 14th parliamentary term was only due to end in July 2023 and the general election has to be held before September 16.
“I think people are fed up. He (Zahid) is extending the power struggle. It’s dragging the people and the country down,” Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun told The Vibes and Getaran.
In fact, a number of Perikatan Nasional (PN) ministers had penned a letter begging the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to allow the 14th term to dissolve naturally in 2023, to protect the public from casting their ballots when their homes could be inundated with floods.
But since caretaker prime minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob was forced to make the request for Parliament’s dissolution on behalf of his party president, the king agreed and granted his assent.
To make matters worse for Umno, many of its own party members are upset with Zahid, especially after he removed strong contenders from defending their seats – including Arau incumbent Datuk Seri Shahidan Kassim, Pasir Salak’s Datuk Seri Tajuddin Abdul Rahman and Ketereh’s Tan Sri Annuar Musa.
“I am a party man. I am a loyal party man. But I face a dilemma. Personally, I want Zahid to lose.
“But how will this look on Umno if our president loses?” a Perak Umno lawyer told The Vibes and Getaran on condition of anonymity.
He explained that Zahid had effectively triggered a civil war in Umno by alienating these extremely powerful warlords – leading Shahidan to contest under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) banner against his former party in Perlis.
The source said he would not be surprised to see Malaysia’s northernmost state fall from Umno’s clutches, granting PN a victory.
“Zahid is lucky. He’s very lucky that Tajuddin is not throwing a tantrum. If Tajuddin decided to contest against Azwan Bro (the blogger moniker for Khairul Azwan Harun), we would lose Pasir Salak too. Right now, Tajuddin seems to be backing Azwan Bro.
“But at the same time, I won’t be surprised if Tajuddin will do something sneaky and instruct his men to vote for someone else during polling day,” said the party insider.
To top it off, Zahid himself may be on shaky ground, despite having been the Bagan Datuk incumbent for the last five terms since 1995.
When The Vibes visited the constituency, many residents complained that the area was actually underdeveloped despite the boasting of their incumbent MP who has held various cabinet posts, including deputy prime minister.
Whatever progress seems to be shallow and the lack of economic development in the area is tangible. Many constituents are still stuck doing low-income coastal fishing work while high- or decent-paying jobs are scarce to non-existent.
These rural Malay folk are also becoming more politically aware of national-level issues when previously they were more concerned about bread-and-butter problems facing their community.
“Can you tell us more about LCS? Is it true what was written on these websites? Was Zahid really involved in LCS?” one of the locals asked The Vibes regarding the littoral combat ship fiasco.
The south still stands with Umno
Looking at the public sentiment, it seems obvious that Malaysia’s oldest Malay-based party has lost its grip in the northern region of Malaysia – basically from Perak onwards to Kedah, Perlis, and Penang.
The same can be seen in the central region of the Federal Territories in Kuala Lumpur, as well as Selangor and Negri Sembilan.
On the east coast, PN linchpin PAS has already fortified Kelantan and Terengganu, leaving only Pahang in the hands of Umno – but even then, whispers in political corridors say their influence is waning.
Umno’s last holdouts are only in Melaka and the state where the party was first formed – Johor.
Typically, in the northern region, one can expect conservative rural Malay votes, including first-time voters, to be cast in favour of PN, while progressive Malays and non-Malay ballots have been secured by PH.
Fear and mistrust of the DAP boogeyman still haunt the Malay heartland, despite efforts by DAP to reach out and connect with these voters. The same can be seen in Terengganu and Kelantan.
The central region, which is the progressive heartland of Malaysia, will see PH leading the race, followed by PN and Umno trailing behind while the southern region has Umno leading the pack, followed by PH and finally PN.
How did Zahid miscalculate so badly?
Pride comes before a fall, and what is overconfidence if not a symptom of pride?
Since the Sheraton Move of 2020, which saw PH’s mandate to govern stolen from them, BN has been regaining ground.
Their victories in four state elections – Sabah in 2020, Melaka and Sarawak in 2021, and their recently concluded victory in Johor this year – may have given Zahid the illusion that the party he led is making a comeback.
What he may not have realised is that the Malaysian electorate is no longer the same as it once was.
During the 14th general election in 2018, the public, in particular the rural Malays who make up the majority of Umno and PAS supporters, did not vote for PH per se.
They were voting against the goods and services tax – a tax they perceived as leaving them near destitution.
When PH failed to address economic issues, especially when the power struggle between PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and then prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad became public knowledge, voters opted to teach PH a lesson in those four states.
It was a lesson that Zahid misinterpreted as support – similar to how PH misinterpreted the backing they received from the voting population in 2018.
And like PH post-Sheraton Move, Zahid is learning a lesson the hard way.
With the odds stacked against them, where can Umno position itself once the dust has settled and the battle for Putrajaya is over? Perhaps all is not lost for Zahid and his party.
Even with a smaller number of seats under their belt, they could still influence national politics – this time as kingmakers instead of kings.
Provided, of course, both their rival coalitions fail to achieve a simple 112-seat majority in Parliament. – The Vibes, November 13, 2022
