KUALA LUMPUR – The recent state elections saw an unexpected rise in Indian support for Perikatan Nasional (PN), highlighting a significant shift in the Malaysian political landscape.
This finding, as unveiled by researcher Bridget Welsh on her website, provides a deeper understanding of the evolving preferences among Malaysian voters, particularly within the Indian community. It was first published in Malaysiakini.
In the state elections, while PN substantially bolstered its hold among Malay voters, it was unable to establish a strong resonance with the Chinese electorate. However, a different picture emerged with the Indians.
According to her preliminary analysis, it shows that PN secured an estimated 29% of the Indian vote in Penang, followed by Negri Sembilan at 19%, and Selangor at 14%. These gains, although representing a minority, indicate an undeniable shift from the previous general election.
Chinese voters, in contrast, showcased consistent support for the unity government, maintaining a level close to that of the previous election which hovered around 96%.
Kelantan was a notable outlier, where Chinese backing for the PAS government was higher. Only about 88% of Chinese there supported unity government candidates.
The Indian voting pattern appears more multifaceted. Concerns surrounding the treatment of Indian leaders and the reactions to racial quotas during the campaigns are believed to have influenced Indian voter sentiment.
In Negri Sembilan, Penang, and Selangor, Indian backing for the unity government witnessed declines of about 21%, 19%, and 12%, respectively. MIC’s non-participation in the state polls race further impacted the decline in Indian voter support which was especially evident in Penang.
PN managed to secure significant electoral gains in the state elections last Saturday by garnering increased support from the Malay community.
The coalition’s popular vote share reached 49% of the total vote across the six state polls, almost matching the vote share of the unity government.
This success translated into a gain of 61 seats out of the total 245, particularly in areas with a majority Malay population.
On Malay voters, Welsh noted that PN successfully attracted the overwhelming majority of them, marking an estimated gain of 19%. Across all six states, PN's support among Malays averaged around 73%.
Highest gains for PN among Malay voters in Kedah
However, this increase was not uniform across different states, with the highest gains observed in Kedah and the lowest in Negri Sembilan. In the latter, Umno still secured victory in 14 seats, often with narrow margins – contributing to a collective 43% share of the Malay votes when combined with Pakatan Harapan’s performance.
Negri Sembilan and Selangor emerged as the states where PN made the most significant gains among Malay voters. Conversely, Terengganu witnessed the least growth for PN as support levels for the opposition coalition were already relatively high prior to the elections.
In contrast, the share of the Malay vote for the coalition led by PH and Umno collectively decreased to an estimated 26% across the six elections. This decline is consistent with the Malay votes received by PH in 2018.
Meanwhile, the turnout across the various ethnic communities showed a decline in estimated voter turnout, aligning with the overall decrease observed from the 15th general election (GE15) – dropping from 79% to 70%, marking a 9% decrease.
Consistent with historical trends, Malays exhibited the highest estimated turnout at 80%, followed by Indians at around 69%, and Chinese at approximately 65%.
Traditionally, Chinese voters have demonstrated the lowest turnout, a trend that persisted in the state polls. However, the noticeable drop in turnout suggests a distinct lack of enthusiasm among Chinese voters for the available electoral alternatives.
Of significance, Indians experienced the most significant reduction in turnout compared to GE15, marking an estimated 15% decrease. This decline resonates with apprehensions among Indian voters about the available electoral options.
Welsh, who is an honorary research associate of the University of Nottingham’s Asia Research Institute, said this decline in turnout reflects a broader shift in Indian voting behaviour during this election in comparison to GE15.
These findings underscore the shifting dynamics of Malay voter preferences and the uneven distribution of support for PN across different states. The state elections’ outcomes offer valuable insights into the evolving political landscape and the changing calculus of electoral alliances in Malaysia.
The lower overall turnout among Chinese voters, however, hints at a potential lack of enthusiasm for the available electoral options.
The patterns revealed by Welsh’s analysis underscore the deep-seated divisions that characterise Malaysia’s political arena. The ethnic voting behaviours shed light on the intricate dynamics of a diverse society, where aspects such as ethnicity, religion, and socioeconomic conditions intersect to inform voting choices.
As Malaysia steers its political journey, these findings emphasise the importance of understanding the ethnic voting landscape. Bridging the existing divisions and forging national unity will necessitate policymakers to be attuned to these evolving dynamics. – The Vibes, August 16, 2023
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