THE current unity government arrangement between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) could gradually become a thing of the past as political realignments point towards a closer cooperation between BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN), an analyst said.
International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) political analyst Dr Syaza Shukri said BN’s decision to work more closely with PN in state elections suggests the coalition has conducted its own assessment and found greater political advantage in aligning with the opposition bloc.
“Why would BN choose PN unless they have done their analysis and discovered that working with PN might be more advantageous than working with PH?” she said.
Dr Syaza, however, stressed that the unity government remains intact for now, with BN and PH still partners at the federal level.
“But I don’t see it coming back for a second term,” she said, adding that this would depend largely on the performance of the BN-PN cooperation in upcoming state elections.
She said if BN and PN continue to perform strongly, particularly after their showing in Johor and potentially in Negeri Sembilan, the political formula could be repeated in other states such as Pahang and Perak.
“Then why not at the federal level?” she questioned.
Dr Syaza said it would become increasingly difficult for BN to return to an arrangement with PH after building an understanding with PN, especially if the cooperation proves successful at the state level.
“How can BN go from this understanding and then return to PH? It would be too much to stomach for both the leaders and supporters,” she said.
With the shifting political landscape, Dr Syaza said PH would effectively have to prepare for the possibility of contesting future elections without BN as an ally.
“So yes, PH is effectively on its own,” she said.
Meanwhile, Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM) senior lecturer Dr Nur Ayuni Mohd Isa said the political equation in Negeri Sembilan has changed significantly, with PH now defending all 36 seats on its own while BN and PN enter the contest under a new alignment.
In the 2023 election, PH and BN together won 31 out of 36 state seats, with PH securing 17 seats and BN 14. This time, BN is contesting 25 seats while PN is fielding candidates in 11 seats, with limited overlap between the two blocs.
Dr Nur Ayuni said the recent Johor election offered an important warning sign for PH, after BN won 48 out of 56 seats with almost 60% of the popular vote.
She said BN’s victory was not only driven by UMNO’s traditional support base but was also aided by PAS supporters backing BN candidates in areas where the Islamist party did not contest, as well as growing tensions between PAS and Bersatu.
“The same pattern could emerge in Negeri Sembilan. BN does not necessarily need to win over PH’s core supporters. It only needs its own supporters to come out in large numbers while some PH voters decide not to vote,” she said.
Dr Nur Ayuni highlighted voter turnout as another crucial factor, noting that Malay-majority areas traditionally linked to BN recorded stronger participation compared with some urban areas that form PH’s strongholds.
While Chinese voters generally remain supportive of PH, she said some may choose not to participate, while Indian support could continue shifting towards BN, following trends seen in Johor.
Based on voter composition, the 2023 results, candidate strength and the impact of Johor’s outcome, Dr Nur Ayuni projected that BN-PN could potentially win between 23 and 26 seats, while PH could retain between 10 and 13 seats. She said several PH seats won with narrow margins in 2023, including Ampangan, Klawang, Pilah and Sikamat, could now face stronger challenges due to their significant Malay voter base.
However, PH is expected to remain dominant in several urban constituencies such as Bukit Kepayang, Mambau, Lobak, Seremban Jaya and Nilai, where the coalition previously secured comfortable victories.
On Bersatu’s position, Dr Nur Ayuni said the party faces an uphill battle after losing PAS as a traditional ally, adding that it may play a larger role as a spoiler by splitting Malay votes rather than emerging as a major force.
With BN and PN testing a new political formula on the state level, the Negeri Sembilan election could provide an early indication of whether the current unity government arrangement has a future — or whether Malaysia is moving towards another major political realignment. – July 18, 2026
