KUALA LUMPUR – The nation could see a worrying rise of up to 8,000 new Covid-19 cases daily by the end of May, if its infectivity rate, R naught (R0), continues to stand between 1.1 to 1.2, said Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah.
In a post on his Facebook today, Noor Hisham said this could be averted if the R0 is reduced to 0.5 to break the chain of cases in the country.
Noor Hisham also uploaded a projection chart sourced from the National Institute of Health, which measures the projected R0 rate between January 4 to May 29 against the current recorded R0 trend between September 12, 2020 to January 4.
According to the chart, a scenario with the R0 at 1.1 would see 3,000 daily new cases of Covid-19 recorded by the second week of February.
The number of cases will almost double to 5,000 cases by the second week of April, before increasing dramatically to 8,000 cases per day by the end of May.
Another scenario chart with the R0 at 1.2 would see 3,000 new virus cases recorded by the end of this month; 5,000 daily cases by the third week of February and 8,000 daily cases by the third week of March.
Malaysia again broke its record for daily new Covid-19 cases with 3,027 infections today, bringing the cumulative number of cases to 128,465.
Noor Hisham said there were also eight deaths, taking the nation’s Covid-19 death toll to 521.
The country also recorded 2,145 recoveries.
He added that 142 infected patients are in intensive care, with 63 requiring intubation.
Yesterday, Noor Hisham reported that the government is mulling a stricter and more targeted approach for Covid-19 red zones, after the country recorded its highest daily tally yet at 2,539 new cases.
He stressed the need for a targeted “circuit breaker” approach to contain the virus, as well as stricter border controls to protect green zones.
The government must look into bringing down the number of daily cases to around 200, he said, adding that the Health Ministry is working together with the National Security Council to come up with new strategies for high-risk areas. – The Vibes, January 7, 2021
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