KUALA LUMPUR – Ever since Perikatan Nasional took over Putrajaya a year ago, nearly all federal lawmakers and politicians in the country have been extremely obsessed with numbers.
For those in the ruling coalition, they are desperately trying to strengthen and build up their numbers in the Dewan Rakyat to prove that Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, who is PN chairman, does have the numerical support to steer the administration.
As for Pakatan Harapan, led by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, the opposition coalition believes that if Parliament is convened, a confidence motion will prove that Muhyiddin lacks the majority in the august House, and that in fact, it is Anwar who commands the confidence.
At the same time, Umno, and by extension its Barisan Nasional coalition, which commands the biggest number in the PN administration, has voiced its discontent and openly said it will contest in the 15th general election alone, and will form a coalition with the strongest party post-ballot day.
However, looking at the current situation, it is surprising to see that if BN does jump lock, stock and barrel right now, it can actually form a ruling coalition with PH – making the old kings of politics the kingmaker.
If this includes PH “Plus Plus” (Warisan, Pejuang and other opposition lawmakers), this coalition will be just one seat shy of a supermajority, or two-thirds, in Parliament, something the country has not seen since the days of Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Malaysia’s fifth prime minister.
Malaysia has a total of 222 federal constituencies, and the minimum required to form a government is 112.
With the deaths of two MPs last year, there are only 220 seats occupied at the moment.
A supermajority in the Dewan Rakyat means that a party or coalition must command 148 MPs.
Currently, based on the Budget 2021 vote, the PN administration commands 112 seats for a simple majority. This is made up of Bersatu (31 seats), PAS (18), Star (one), Gabungan Parti Sarawak (18), Parti Bersatu Sabah (1), Umno (35), MCA (2), MIC (1), Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (1) and independents (4).
Meanwhile, the opposition held 108 seats in that vote, comprising PKR (35), DAP (42), Amanah (11), Parti Warisan Sabah (8), Pejuang (4), Umno (3 – abstained), Parti Sarawak Bersatu (2), United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (1), Muda (1) and independent (1).
A coalition made up of BN and a united opposition will see them commanding 147 seats, just one seat short of the holy grail of Malaysian politics – the supermajority in the Dewan Rakyat.
However, analysts and politicians weighing on the matter agree that even though such a union would be beneficial for all parties involved, the dynamics of the current political situation makes it far more complex than the simple mathematics of obtaining and holding the majority.
More complicated than just numbers, despite benefiting BN, PH
PKR information chief Fahmi Fadzil told The Vibes that Umno, especially its leaders who command positions of authority under the PN administration, will definitely see things from a profit-loss perspective and calculate the best formula for themselves.
“I think a lot of the calculation would involve what they would lose out of this move. Maybe, some of them might feel that they hold certain positions and benefits.
“By doing so, they won’t get the same benefits. Unfortunately, that is part of what I see in their political calculus.”
Asked whether this sort of cooperation would benefit the average Malaysian, especially in a time of a pandemic and economic downturn, where it would be far more costly for the nation, Fahmi said the matter was never raised in any of the PKR or PH meetings.
“It is an interesting scenario, and not something we’ve discussed for PH and even PKR. As you know, right now, there are many discussions, of course.
“And my sense is, if they were able to agree to the principles and the frame of reformation agenda and these kinds of positions – our respective red lines, as it were – then it’s something that is perhaps plausible.
“But whether it is possible or not, I don’t know the probability of that.”
An Umno source close to the party leadership who requested anonymity said the situation is not simply a matter of numbers, as his party must look further into the future and any decision’s impact on it.
He understood that the majority of Umno’s grassroots have had enough with Bersatu and Muhyiddin’s “divisive” politics, and that the party leadership has heard their cries, but at the same time, a form of balance must still be struck.
“Well, it all depends on the dynamics of our current politics. It’s not a question of numbers. We have to look into the whole ecosystem and what is the next impact in the run-up to the elections.
“It’s not as easy as getting the numbers and then we can conclude to put and say that you already have formed a two-thirds government.
“However, we must prepare for any eventuality. It is very important because you can’t search in one direction when the other side is preparing for other options as well.
“It would be unwise for you not to look into some probability, and the chance that you have to prepare if this situation arises.”
Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun stressed that even though this marriage of convenience can benefit Umno, the deal might not pan out because the party will be looking to lead any such coalition and take the prime minister’s post for itself.
“Umno’s main concern or demand is such that it could assume the leading role in a ruling coalition, such as having one of its leaders become PM.
“But, Anwar is obviously still very intent upon himself finally becoming PM. So, the main stalemate is there.
“If Anwar or PKR is willing to relent on this, then such an alliance is possible, and it would of course be tremendously beneficial to Umno.”
He added that PH Plus Plus could even find resistance among its own ranks, where Pejuang chief Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad would refuse to cooperate if Anwar was the prime minister candidate.
The scholar also noted that Dr Mahathir would not give his endorsement if Umno leaders charged with corruption, including party president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, were not excluded from the top leadership of such an alliance.
However, other parties in the opposition bloc, particularly DAP and Amanah, are expected to follow PKR’s lead if it is willing to sacrifice the prime minister’s position.
“But Dr Mahathir, (Warisan president) Datuk Seri (Mohd) Shafie Apdal, and (Sarawak ruling coalition) GPS may have a more nuanced stand,” said Oh.
“For Dr Mahathir, if the court clusters are excluded from being in the top leadership of such an alliance, he may, albeit reluctantly, support such a new alliance, as it is consistent with his insistence on stopping Anwar from ever becoming PM.
“Shafie may render tacit support to such an alliance, while quietly nursing his own long-shot pursuit to be PM. GPS will see which side could grant them a more Sarawak-friendly deal.”
Oh’s observation is echoed by independent political analyst Khoo Kay Peng, who pointed out that it is a benefit for all parties involved if they can work together and form a government.
However, looking at the current situation, Umno will not be comfortable if it is relegated to No. 2, or even No. 3, in such a coalition, especially since it has spent decades as the top dog in Malaysia’s political arena.
It is these kinds of divisions that are allowing, for the first time in Malaysia, a minority party to form the government through cunning, guile and the exploitation of government institutions.
Anwar still believes that in spite of the recent exit of three PKR MPs to be government-friendly independents, PH still has “adequate numbers”.
Who has the numbers can be decided only if Parliament reconvenes, and the fact that Muhyiddin is reluctant to do so gives an inkling of who at least does not have majority support. – The Vibes, March 21, 2021
