Mas Ermieyati’s candidacy probably futile 11th-hour push

MELAKA – The last-minute switch by Perikatan Nasional (PN) from “poster boy” Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin to “poster girl” Datuk Mas Ermieyati Samsudin does little to whip up support for the Bersatu-led coalition.

This is despite a possibility of Mas Ermieyati being the first female Melaka chief minister.

Many observers and critics have predicted a wipe out for PN last week, with either Barisan Nasional (BN) or Pakatan Harapan (PH) tipped for victory.

On-the-ground voter sentiment, based on observations by The Vibes, also indicate annihilation for the Muhyiddin-led outfit, as not even his supposed popularity and name appear to be enough to garner support.

All this changed when PN finally announced – just two days shy of polling day – that Mas Ermieyati would be given the mandate to lead the state in the event the coalition scores an unlikely victory.

The strategy is clear: Muhyiddin and company were hoping to ride on an 11th-hour push of swing votes, particularly to capture the hearts of the female and young electorate.

Even a separate press conference held by Mas Ermieyati later yesterday was that of a celebratory tone, particularly among supporters.

If the 45-year-old Mas Ermieyati is appointed chief minister, it will be the first time any woman helms a state government in the country’s history. She will also be the youngest Melaka chief minister since Tan Sri Abdul Rahim Thamby Chik in 1982.

For the record, women constitute 51.43% of the overall electorate in Melaka, while youth aged below 40 make up 38.37%.

Not big enough a name?

The question remains: will Mas Ermieyati have enough of a wow factor to lead her coalition to glory?

The simple answer, as things stand, is no, simply because she is not a big enough household name such as Muhyiddin, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, or even the scandal-plagued Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who has garnered quite the following online through his “Bossku” campaign.

At most, Mas Ermieyati is expected only to help the coalition win three seats, including in Tg Bidara, where she faces her former mentor and Umno strongman Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh.

Even then, to secure a majority in the constituency she is contesting will be an arduous task. Tg Bidara has been an Umno stronghold since the seat was created in 2004, and is the constituency with the biggest majority among all seats that were won by BN in 2018.

Bersatu Masjid Tanah head Mas Ermieyati’s own lack of confidence at leading PN to a victory in her seat and the state is quite telling.

When asked if her candidacy as chief minister will give her an upper hand, Mas Ermieyati had said yesterday: “I don’t consider the announcement an advantage. At the same time, I can’t feel too comfortable.”

According to a political analyst, Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Prof Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani, other than Tg Bidara, PN could likely emerge victorious in state seats within the parliamentary constituency of Masjid Tanah, where Mas Ermieyati is MP.

Another possible win could come from Telok Mas, where PN’s state liaison chief Datuk Mohd Rafiq Naizamohideen is contesting. But at best, I would say PN will only win two or three seats.”  

While this is not enough to form a government – any coalition needs at least 15 seats of the 28 up for grabs – it could be enough to disrupt the outcome of the November 20 polls.

It would not be a surprise if it had been PN’s plan all along to just be kingmaker in the state, knowing that if no coalition wins majority, it will have the final say in the formation of the new government.

This may allow the coalition the authority to demand for positions in the administration and give it a chance to co-govern the state.

PH, BN left to battle it out

So, this leaves BN and PH as the two likely coalitions to fight it out for the throne, and it could come down to mere margins.

For BN, its 63 years history of helming Melaka – before its humbling defeat in the 2018 general election – could prove to be an advantage for the Umno-led coalition.

The coalition can bank on its strong grassroots support and sturdy on-ground machinery to recapture the state, while many fence-sitters who previously voted for PH during the voters’ tsunami in 2018, on the back of the 1Malaysia Development Bhd mega scandal, are likely to return to BN’s fold.

Its one sore point is that voters might snub the coalition, seeing how it was the infighting within Umno that triggered the snap state polls, besides Rauf’s unpopularity among the Melakan masses.

As for PH, its chance of reclaiming the state administration lies on a high voter turnout, particularly among electorates who are residing outside Melaka.

All three major coalitions have, at some point during the campaigning period, expressed concern of a low turnout, with voters seemingly uninterested in state politics after their mandate was betrayed, or afraid of the Covid-19 pandemic.

As seen in previous elections, PH garnered a majority of its support from younger urbanites, and will again bank on this group of voters come polling day.

With the campaigning period drawing to a close in just a few hours, what could be the fate of the historic state when voters head to the ballot boxes tomorrow?

Whatever Melaka’s decision may be, the result will have some bearing on the next general election and potentially provide insight into what to expect in the much talked-about GE15. – The Vibes, November 19, 2021

Additional reporting by Isabelle Leong